Previously: Part 1 a b c d e f g h

Part 2. Guiding Principles

Aims are not, by themselves, sufficient to produce a plan of action. They must be balanced against one another, striking a balance between the financial forces that drive the game forward, the emotion and history that make it great, and the logistics of scheduling games across three formats, diverse seasonal conditions and a seemingly infinite number of competitions.

The second part of this manifesto will deal with those issues, developing an over-arching competitive structure to produce competitive and meaningful fixtures, a domestic schedule to rationalise the existing mess of international tours and, now lucrative and expansionistic, domestic cricket seasons, and some general principles of tournament play to ensure fairness.

Part 2a. Structural pillars

The international side of the game has always been at the centre, and it is that that needs straightening first. The recent FTP driven expansion of the fixture list has not been kind to the sport, burning out players and fans alike on meaningless games. As a corrective I propose that the international fixture list be pared back to a handful of core fixtures played over a four year cycle: world and regional championships in each format and the marquee test tours.

There are a number of reasons why this is both desirable and possible. Firstly, the emergence of domestic T20 leagues reduces the need for money spinning limited overs friendlies to generate revenue. Given they have been, for a long time, merely used to prepare for the world cup and champions trophy, their almost complete removal will be lamented by few and will open up much needed space in the schedule.

Secondly, the expansion of world cup places to minnows has resulted in a bloated tournament while delivering only limited development opportunities. Pushing the development emphasis to a regional level allows both more opportunities to the smaller nations and a tighter, better world cup.

Thirdly, many lament the lack of interest in test cricket outside the major teams. In reality, the fans of those nations recognise those tours for what they are: perfunctory obligations of little value. Structuring the vast bulk of test matches into year long tournaments, and freeing them from the burden of short series should both increase the interest in test cricket in those nations and, as above, free up scheduling space for T20 games that will vastly improve the financial status of players in those nations.

Finally, by scheduling for marquee series every second season, there is ample room to continue playing those traditional series, such as the Ashes, upon which much of cricket's heritage, and no little interest or money, rests.

A final word then, on the future of one day cricket. As someone who gave up watching it some years ago, I was tempted to expunge it from the schedule entirely. That would be presumptuous and premature. The fact remains however, that ODI cricket is faced with dwindling interest and numerous challenges. Something that should be obvious from the rule tinkering that has beset the game of late. It has few core supporters, being neither as short or action packed as the t20 game so loved by the general public, nor as stern a test of character as the preferred format of the purist. Like games of professional vs players, or xxii vs xi, its time has passed. I suspect the only real question is how long will it linger.

Cricket - Manifesto 30th January, 2010 21:09:02   [#] [0 comments] 

An adjustment to the non-test team initial ratings this week. Teams with ODI status (and the USA) begin on 300, the others on 150. The major change is to push the minnows (of the minnows) downwards.

Recently completed matches

2nd Test	Bangladesh	v	India
Pre-rating	590.80		1211.48
Form	+51.16		+26.15
Expected Margin	India by 260 runs
Actual Margin	India by 10 wickets
Post-rating	605.06		1210.60

Given how dominant India was expected to be, the main interest in this game was whether Bangladesh could continue their gradual improvement in play. And they did, sort of. At 5/51 the game was effectively over, but their lower order has the ability to innings of substance, not just the haphazard cameos of the top order. Still, when India reached 2/421 in response the main point of interest was whether they could force the innings and 12 run defeat they needed to push back above Australia in the rankings. For a moment, with Tamin Iqbal blitzing at one end, and India facing a small chase with two batsmen injured, maybe, just maybe Bangladesh could make something of this game. No sooner had the thought crossed the minds of those watching than they lost 7/22. No team can overcome that kind of collapse. Bangladesh need to learn to concentrate, for days, not sessions, to grind out wins. India, perhaps are a step too far anyway, but Bangladesh's good moments are better than those of some of their poorly ranked rivals; unfortunately their worst moments are very much worse, and that will hurt them. The forthcoming tour to New Zealand will be a more interesting contest.

I-Shield Match	United Arab Emirates	v	Uganda
Pre-rating	151.23		281.26
Form	+14.57		+4.17
Expected Margin	Uganda by 15 runs
Actual Margin	Match Drawn
Post-rating	155.26		280.54

The U.A.E. will feel hard done by after this match, having failed to secure first innings points or a full victory, despite being wel placed to achieve both. Uganda's collapses offered both opportunities to the opposition, losting 4/5 in the first innings when just 29 runs from their target, but saved by Nsubuga, and 5/12 in the second, before the same batsman, along with Ssemanda and Ziraba saved them from an inglorious defeat. The U.A.E. should equally regret wasting their chance to attack, with a 200 run lead in the second innings and 70 odd overs to play, the chance was there to set Uganda something chaseable from more than the 43 overs they left themselves. Both sides are well placed for a rematch in the final.

I-Cup Match	Afghanistan	v	Ireland
Pre-rating	305.38		564.78
Form	+10.77		+30.82
Expected Margin	Ireland by 130 runs
Actual Margin	Afghanistan by 7 wickets
Post-rating	336.95		554.16

An upset of sorts, that puts tremendous pressure on Ireland to qualify for the final. But for those following Afghan cricket, merely another sign that they are likely to be a force in Asia sooner rather than later - notwithstanding the immense difficulties they have playing in the country. A rel team performance from Afghanistan, with particular note of Mohammad Nabi's all-round performance (64 and 4/33). A lack of penetration in the Irish bowling and an untimely collapse at the start of the fourth day sealed the contest for AfghanistanThe sort of competitive fixture that both sides need more of as thei games develop.

I-Cup Match	Kenya	v	Scotland
Pre-rating	365.73		450.76
Form	+45.42		+23.36
Expected Margin	Kenya by 7 runs
Actual Margin	Scotland by 8 wickets
Post-rating	351.54		470.23

A game decided on the opening day when the Scots ground their way relentlessly through the Kenyan batting - the slow motion collapse of 7/17 taking 25 overs to complete. Kenya's second innings was better with Ouma making a ton, but they lost wickets too regularly, and often failed to keep the scoreboard ticking over despite some lengthy knocks (notably Varaiya who took 237 balls to make his 44). Scotland back on top of the table, and closing a little on Ireland in the rankings.

Forthcoming series

2 Tests	India	v	South Africa
Pre-rating	1210.60		1186.53
Form	+17.87		+0.27
Expected Margin	India by 62 runs

Organised in a rush to take advantage of India's number one status, this series is an abomination against sensible scheduling. Nevertheless, it might still produce some interesting cricket. South Africa's recent form slump and India's home advantage are balanced against an excellent record for the tourists and some injuries in the home team. At least one game is likely to serve up a mountain of runs, but expect India to win the other.

Rankings at 29th January 2010
1.	Australia	1211.56
2.	India	1210.60
3.	South Africa	1186.53
4.	England	1129.63
5.	Sri Lanka	1103.96
6.	Pakistan	1077.62
7.	New Zealand	942.04
8.	West Indies	926.27
9.	Bangladesh	605.06
10.	Zimbabwe	556.79
11.	Ireland	554.16
12.	Scotland	470.23
13.	Namibia	364.81
14.	Kenya	351.54
15.	Afghanistan	336.95
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	280.54
18.	Netherlands	230.88
19.	Canada	188.31
20.	Nepal	179.54
21.	Bermuda	170.84
22.	U.A.E.	155.26
23.	Hong Kong	147.15
24.	Cayman Is	134.24
25.	Malaysia	108.49

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 30th January, 2010 01:54:16   [#] [0 comments] 

Recently completed matches

3rd Test	Australia	v	Pakistan
Pre-ratings	1209.30		1077.62
Form	-12.29		+6.67
Expected Margin	Australia by 116 runs
Actual Margin	Australia by 231 runs
Post-ratings	1211.56		1073.90

A dead rubber, between a dispirited and deeply negative opponent, and an Australian side that, if nothing else, can still kick a team when its down. Things may have been different if Ponting's reckless pull shot on nought had not gone to ground, but Australia's summer is best summarised as mediocre cricket against two sides eager to self-destruct. For Pakistan, inexperienced and still feeling their way back into the test arena, this series will hopefully be a learning experience. Their talent is being squandered on daft dismissals, poor fielding and negative cricket. Test cricket is about patience and consistency of performance, and Pakistan have neither.

Perhaps the big winner from this series will be England, now likely to face the same aging and brittle batting line-up that failed so badly last year. With both sides playing with one eye on the Ashes, the failure of Australia's selectors to redress glaring problems could haunt them badly come December.

4th Test	South Africa	v	England
Pre-rating	1168.45		1142.19
Form	-47.88		+36.20
Expected Margin	South Africa by 63 runs
Actual Margin	South Africa by an innings and 74 runs
Post-rating	1186.53		1129.63

South Africa might breathe a sigh of relief that, finally, their bowling breached the English defences. They'll feel, having failed twice to close out games, that the 1-1 scoreline isn't reflective of their dominance over-all. There is, however, a reason that chess puzzles focus on the end-game. South Africa should look take a hard look at the composition of their side, which, talented as it is, isn't getting the results it might. The batsmen are too often getting out for middling scores and scoring slowly when big tons and attack are required. The bowling is good, but they seem to play within themselves, going through the motions waiting for something to happen. Great sides make something happen.

England too, should look at their side. The number 3 position is still problematic, and only the grit of Collingwood and Bell in the middle order prevented this series being a sound defeat. The bowling too is weak, lacking the power to prize out wickets on unhelpful decks, and, much as Swann has been a revelation, he, like his fellow trundlers, averages on the wrong side of 30. They showed strength of character, however, and for that alone will feel they have got something out of this series.

1st Test	Bangladesh	v	India
Pre-rating	571.36		1215.55
Form	+49.09		+45.74
Expected Margin	India by 272 runs
Actual Margin	India by 113 runs
Post-rating	590.80		1211.48

The rise and rise of Bangladesh. Those who remember the seemingly endless string of innings defeats will know what I am talking about. A ratings system, like mine, that focuses on the margin of defeat can't help but note that Bangladesh are accelerating towards a respectable rating under Shakib Al Hasan. Sure, their batsmen still play pathetic shots - none more so than Mohammad Ashraful - but their captain believes in them, vowing, to the general mirth of reporters, to push for an unlikely victory chasing 415, and via a brilliant century by Mushfiqur Rahim, continuing to go for the win even when all seemed lost. Perhaps noone cares, but my mirth was there when the arrogantly proclaimed number 1 team in the world failed, by just 2 runs, to defend that spot under my system. No doubt they will get it back, but it remains a disputed title, mathematically, not emphatically the case.

Despite easing to victory, India have their worries. Their batting failed here, Tendulkar and Gambhir aside. Perhaps it was arrogance (certainly on Sehwag's part), and can be discarded as such, but a similar performance against South Africa in a month would see them lose. Bangladesh still search for that elusive big name win, but it gets closer, as the consistency of their performances improves, so too do their chances of achieving it.

Forthcoming series

I-Shield Match	United Arab Emirates	v	Uganda
Pre-rating	163.02		281.36
Form	+12.48		+4.36
Expected Margin	Uganda by 9 runs

With neither side playing very often, the predicted closeness of this match is probably worthless, but likely accurate. The U.A.E. defeated reigning I-Cup finalist Namibia in their last match and are likely better than their rating reflects. Uganda, I know little about, except that their players like defecting, and they are regarded as an emerging nation with some reasonable results to show for it.

I-Cup Match	Afghanistan	v	Ireland
Pre-rating	211.43		567.26
Form	+22.85		+31.10
Expected Margin	Ireland by 178 runs

An intriguing match-up between the best team amongst the associates and the fastest improver. Ireland will be slightly under-strength, suffering from recent retirements, injuries and English defections, but have Niall O'Brien and Porterfield. They will also be keen, having drawn their previous games and in need of a win. Afghanistan are quickly proving their mettle, having drawn with Zimbabwe and beaten the Netherlands by a single wicket. The neutral Sri Lankan wicket should nevertheless favour the Afghans. With the ratings unable to adequately reflect sides that play so rarely expect a surprise.

I-Cup Match	Kenya	v	Scotland
Pre-rating	367.28		452.49
Form	+46.01		+23.70
Expected Margin	Kenya by 7 runs

Also an intriguing game, between the top two sides on the table. Kenya have fallen in recent years, their best players aging or retired, and the youth not up to the same standard. Nevertheless, while Scotland might count themselves fortunate to have scraped a win and draw to date, Kenya annihilated Canada and were not out of it when the game ended against the Irish. Tikolo remains the key, given his ability to hit big hundreds (a rarity at this level) and take crucial wickets. If he is in form, at home, Kenya should win.

Rankings at 21st January 2010
1.	Australia	1211.56
2.	India	1211.48
3.	South Africa	1186.53
4.	England	1129.63
5.	Sri Lanka	1103.96
6.	Pakistan	1077.62
7.	New Zealand	942.04
8.	West Indies	926.27
9.	Bangladesh	590.80
10.	Zimbabwe	556.79
11.	Ireland	567.26
12.	Scotland	452.49
13.	Namibia	370.03
14.	Kenya	367.28
15.	Nepal	313.16
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	281.36
18.	Malaysia	251.70
19.	Netherlands	231.18
20.	Afghanistan	211.43
21.	Hong Kong	196.03
22.	Canada	190.58
23.	Cayman Is	180.41
24.	Bermuda	172.66
25.	U.A.E.	163.02

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 21st January, 2010 13:18:48   [#] [0 comments] 

Following on from my comments on Australia's propensity to collapse in the last ratings, TonyT notes that it has become so obvious that even the selectors have pointed it out. Following Tony's lead, I'll also restate what I said a year ago:

"Ponting is proud, so surrendering the number three slot is against his nature, but the number of collapses in the past year has been alarming."

Why are others so slow on the uptake? Why is it only now that people are noticing that no less that with the exception of the openers, the top six are unreliable, with Haddin, Clarke and North, in particular prone to making runs only off the sturdiest of platforms. Partly, it is because averages hide those fallibilities. All of the batsmen average around 40 to 50 over the past two years, which is reasonable enough. The sides average total is solid enough and no worse than most others. The problem lies in the distribution.

The graph above shows the score distribution for each of the nine test teams ^[1]. A comparison with England is most pertinent. England have what you'd expect a side to have: a roughly normal distribution of scores, centred around 330, with most of their scores roughly 150 runs on either side of this. Australia however, while at or near the top in scoring between 400 and 700, are near the bottom for scores between 250 and 350, and in the midst of the cellar dwellers for scores below 200.

The pronounced double peak indicates a batting lineup incapable of playing sensible innings in poor conditions - a problem shared by New Zealand and Pakistan. The top peak produces batting averages that hide a soft middle order. One that will turn a poor session into a disastrous one, and is subsequently incapable of winning series against good sides who don't have those bad sessions, and who can merely wait for the opportunity they'll invariably be presented with.

Australia's batting, in other words, is in serious trouble.

Update: Much of the above is wrong, or partly wrong, because of the distribution of very large scores. The graph below shows things a little better, and it isn't any prettier for Australia. ^[2]

Note that Australia have the worst record of any major (top 5) side for making between 170 and 290 (the collapse problem), but are getting to 400 at roughly the same rate as everyone (and well in front of England who don't make a lot of scores over 300). What is more noticeable in this graph is that Australia is failing to make very large scores (500-600) at the same rate as the other sides in the top-4. This is a consequence of having a lineup seemingly incapable of very large centuries, but it makes it doubly hard to rescue a game from a sub-300 first innings total.

[1] Each score has been converted to a normal distribution centred on that score, summed, then expressed as a percentage. Uncompleted innings have been projected forward.

[2] This shows a cumulative distribution, essentially the percentage (x8) of times a side is bowled out for less than that score.

Cricket - Analysis 11th January, 2010 23:12:39   [#] [2 comments] 

Recently completed matches

2nd Test	Australia	v	Pakistan
Pre-ratings	1214.30		1073.01
Form	-9.13		-3.40
Expected Margin	Australia by 121 runs
Actual Margin	Australia by 36 runs
Post-ratings	1209.30		1077.62

Could almost cut and paste last week's note on Ponting in here, but instead I'll focus on the batting order. It is hard to fathom ho the selectors have persisted with this lineup for so long, given the results. In just 27 tests, Australia has been bowled out for 215 or less no less than 11 times. 6 times in 13 tests over the past 12 months. A general ineptitude against the swinging ball, a lot of ordinary form (Ponting, North, Hussey, Hughes and Haddin all average no better than 40) and a tendency to play completely inappropriate shots, has produced a team capable of scoring big on occasion, but all too frequently fail completely. The team needs players capable of mature controlled innings - Klinger being the obvious candidate - that can hold the innings together, and build a total that will keep them in the game long enough for the mercurial batsmen and bowlers to find form.

What went wrong for Pakistan? No team should lose from that position. Credit to Mohammed Yousuf for taking the blame for his injudicious shot, but he was part of a large club, and his captaincy was severely lacking in several areas: notably defensiveness in the field to Hussey and Siddle, and an inability to get his players to keep their heads down and work for the win. To toss this game away - almost from the moment one of the most controlled and sensible opening stands I have seen in a long time ended - was unforgivable.

3rd Test	South Africa	v	England
Pre-rating	1185.33		1129.49
Form	-56.41		+43.22
Expected Margin	South Africa by 78 runs
Actual Margin	Match drawn
Post-rating	1168.45		1142.19

As with Australia, you could cut and paste last week's comment. An English team with fight is a dangerous thing, and in Collingwood and Strauss they have players capable of grinding out draws when required. Bell remains an enigma, playing here the game of his career, but in both innings, throwing it away at crucial times. The bowling continues to flounder on unhelpful pitches, but, like the batting, they grind away and stay in the game for just long enough. Close again, but still no win for South Africa. Now facing the prospect of losing their second consecutive home series. They didn't do much wrong, but they lack the killer instinct at key times (notably at 2/261 when a rapid acceleration was called for). Until they learn that they will remain short of the best side.

Forthcoming series

2nd Test	Bangladesh	v	India
Pre-rating	571.36		1215.55
Form	+49.09		+45.74
Expected Margin	India by 272 runs

Two teams on the improve. India will be fortunate if they can maintain their rating against a Bangladeshi side that, under Shakib has come along well recently. Even so, a typically one-sided encounter is on the cards.

Rankings at 8th January 2010
1.	India	1215.55
2.	Australia	1209.30
3.	South Africa	1168.45
4.	England	1142.19
5.	Sri Lanka	1103.96
6.	Pakistan	1077.62
7.	New Zealand	942.04
8.	West Indies	926.27
9.	Bangladesh	571.36
10.	Zimbabwe	556.79
11.	Ireland	567.26
12.	Scotland	452.49
13.	Namibia	370.03
14.	Kenya	367.28
15.	Nepal	313.16
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	281.36
18.	Malaysia	251.70
19.	Netherlands	231.18
20.	Afghanistan	211.43
21.	Hong Kong	196.03
22.	Canada	190.58
23.	Cayman Is	180.41
24.	Bermuda	172.66
25.	U.A.E.	163.02

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 9th January, 2010 12:31:49   [#] [0 comments] 

Slotting the monthly rating system into constant touring has always been problematic, as is the need to review whole series some time after the event. A change to the system I had in place previously then, with a weekly ratings update, and pithy comments on each team who played, or will play. At some point a proper historical database of the ratings will also become available.

Recently completed matches

1st Test	Australia	v	Pakistan
Pre-ratings	1212.34		1076.45
Form	-17.41		+4.65
Expected Margin	Australia by 118 runs
Actual Margin	Australia by 170 runs
Post-ratings	1214.30		1073.01

Australia

Erratic. No, not Australia, Ricky Ponting. Following on his pronouncement after Brisbane, Ponting again declared early, giving his bowlers enough rope to hang themselves with. Against the West Indies a fortnight before, but also numerous times before in the past year, they had failed, either scraping a victory, scrapping a draw, or looking moribund in a crushing loss. Against Pakistan batsmen willing to toss their wicket away a big victory was recorded. Ponting's captaincy might be aggressive, but it is also ill-thought out. Attacking cricket, hitting quick runs in the lead-up to a declaration is worthwhile. Declaring prematurely, collapsing badly and scoring slowly in the second innings added nothing to Australia's cause. What isn't being mentioned is that the skipper is batting in the same way. Every stroke is a ill-timed bludgeon, he starts quickly, but never looks set, and gets out; the hundreds are rare, the recent average is just on 40. A lesser player would be criticised for it, and rightly so. His approach, in general, borders on maniacal, impatient and reckless. Perhaps it will work, perhaps it is time to start planning for a future without him.

Pakistan

Not easy to come back to test cricket after a year or more in the wilderness. But why blame T20 for recklessness? Batsmen in the past decade have scored faster, true, but they have also scored heavier and batted longer. Techniques might be worsening, but that is flat pitches requiring no footwork, as much as alternate forms of the game. The evidence that short form of the game is ruining players is just not there. What is there is a recklessness on the part of batsmen in Pakistan (and the West Indies, and Bangladesh) that stems from a mix of inexperience and brainless cricket. When Umar Akmal practising a crooked slog between balls during the second innings, it isn't because he hasn't got out of a T20 mindset, it is because he is irresponsible. Good cricketers adjust to circumstances, good cricketers can concentrate, in the field, and with the bat. The problem with Pakistan in Melbourne is that they didn't concentrate.

2nd Test	South Africa	v	England
Pre-rating	1212.19		1109.73
Pre-form	-10.77		+14.84
Expected Margin	South Africa by 101 runs
Actual Margin	England by an innings and 98 runs
Post-rating	1185.33		1129.49

England

It might be time to reassess England's Ashes win. The consensus, at least in the Australian press, was that their win had more to do with Australian ineptitude and luck than England's ability. What we are seeing in South Africa says otherwise. This is an exceptionally disciplined side, not laden with stars, but capable of staying in games and taking opportunities. The draw in the first test owed as much to the disciplined bowling that slowed the South African charge until late on the fourth day, as to the batting. Those same qualities were to the fore at Durban, grinding down South Africa with the ball, then bat, then pouncing when the pressure told on their batsmen. Superstars they are not, but there is a balance and resilience to this side, and they get better with each test.

South Africa

What to make of South Africa? Was it really a year ago they breached the defences of Australia at home, showing a strength of character that should have propelled them to number one in the world? A somewhat bizarre collapse aside, the South Africa batting looks as solid as ever, but, Smith aside, it lacks the power to take the game to the opposition. Duminy has a strike rate around 40, Kallis, Amla and Prince are not much better. With the ball, Ntini must surely be dropped, as the bowling has failed to make inroads into the English batting at three attempts. This is still a good side, but they need some aggressive intent to make them great.

India

It would be remiss of me not to mention India's ascent to the number one position, for the first time in their history, following Australia and South Africa's disappointing results against the West Indies and England respectively a few weeks ago. This is thoroughly deserved, their form will see them ascend still further, even if Australia briefly regains the top position in their series against Pakistan. Much of the credit in recent times must fall on Dhoni, a captain who attacks, and gives his players - particularly Sehwag - the license to do the same, to win games. After years of negative and counter-productive cricket they are finally playing near to their potential. The future, perhaps, is not bright, as the batting talents must surely wane, and the bowling remains flaky, but for now, they are the leading team in world cricket.

Rankings at 1st January 2010
1.	India	1215.55
2.	Australia	1214.30
3.	South Africa	1185.33
4.	England	1129.49
5.	Sri Lanka	1103.96
6.	Pakistan	1073.01
7.	New Zealand	942.04
8.	West Indies	926.27
9.	Bangladesh	571.36
10.	Zimbabwe	556.79
11.	Ireland	567.26
12.	Scotland	452.49
13.	Namibia	370.03
14.	Kenya	367.28
15.	Nepal	313.16
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	281.36
18.	Malaysia	251.70
19.	Netherlands	231.18
20.	Afghanistan	211.43
21.	Hong Kong	196.03
22.	Canada	190.58
23.	Cayman Is	180.41
24.	Bermuda	172.66
25.	U.A.E.	163.02

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season

Cricket - Ratings - Test 1st January, 2010 14:10:27   [#] [0 comments]