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Cricket - Associate 26th March, 2012 08:05:39 [#] [1 comment]
Ratings - 22nd March 2012
|
2nd Test | New Zealand | v | South Africa |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 891.40 | 1178.45 | |
Form | +15.31 | -5.35 | |
Expected Margin | South Africa by 94 runs | ||
Actual Margin | South Africa by 9 wickets | ||
Post-rating | 885.10 | 1183.70 |
No need to worry about rain. With Philander playing so well, South Africa have both a remarkable and balanced attack. They'd probably like more output from Morkel, who drifts in and out of games, but with Steyn and Philander doing the heavy lifting, being is difficult to get away and occasionally devastating is sufficient. Their batting looks slightly more troubled; not so much in this game, but only de Villiers really scored runs, with his 83.
New Zealand have played well at times in this series, but let the odd series drift with the ball - letting South Africa recover from 6/88 was the most significant period of the match - and with their periodic batting collapses. Their bowling is merely solid. Vettori was never a match-winner, and is now more batsman than bowler, albeit one that means they have a long tail. Martin seems to be in the prime of his career, but is not young, and the support is inconsistent. Thy are definitely playing better than they were a few years ago, but they are a long way from being even an average test side, ratings wise.
2 Tests | Sri Lanka | v | England |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 1030.56 | 1304.23 | |
Form | -9.02 | -11.70 | |
Expected Margin | England by 87 runs |
An odd little tour, reminiscent of the early 1980s, without the tour of India to accompany it. England ought to win easily; they are a superior team, Sri Lanka have little to offer with the ball, their form is woeful in test cricket, and their players are past their best with the bat. Australia came to Sri Lanka last year and won, relatively easily; they did so, as teams need to, with their spinner, and with tight bowling. England have both. The caveat is their defeat by Pakistan where their middle order was inept against Saeed Ajmal and company. I don't see a repeat, mostly because Sri Lanka have no spinners as capable, and because that series was close, even if England consistently ended up on the losing side.
You can never rule out an absolute road in Sri Lanka, and after being rolled by Australia on a turning deck, it is more likely Sri Lanka will aim for high scoring draws, than run the risk of Swann finding form. For England, they need to prove they can play in these conditions, and not just the bouncy true tracks of Australia, or the seaming decks of home. Unfortunately, such a short series may merely lead to more questions anyway.
Rankings at 22nd March 2012 | ||
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1. | England | 1304.23 |
2. | South Africa | 1183.70 |
3. | Australia | 1177.62 |
4. | Pakistan | 1128.35 |
5. | Sri Lanka | 1036.56 |
6. | India | 1023.29 |
7. | West Indies | 923.80 |
8. | New Zealand | 885.10 |
9. | Bangladesh | 601.34 |
10. | Zimbabwe | 543.69 |
11. | Ireland | 555.48 |
12. | Afghanistan | 514.53 |
13. | Scotland | 444.87 |
14. | Namibia | 407.53 |
15. | Kenya | 317.93 |
16. | U.S.A. | 296.99 |
17. | Uganda | 268.44 |
18. | U.A.E. | 212.22 |
19. | Netherlands | 202.55 |
20. | Nepal | 196.51 |
21. | Canada | 154.58 |
22. | Hong Kong | 148.65 |
23. | Cayman Is | 134.24 |
24. | Malaysia | 123.90 |
25. | Bermuda | 105.40 |
Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.
Cricket - Ratings - Test 24th March, 2012 14:37:36 [#] [0 comments]
First Qualifying Final | Afghanistan | v | Namibia |
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Rating | 2020.3 | 1999.0 | |
Form | +0.4 | -13.6 | |
Expected Margin | Afghanistan by 3 runs | ||
Qualifying Prob. | 76.5% | 72.5% | |
Leading Scorer | Mohammad Shahzad 261 @ 52.2 (127.31) | R van Schoor 323 @ 80.75 (112.93) | |
Leading Wicket-taker | Dawlat Zadran 11 @ 9.81 (5.68) | C Viljoen 11 @ 13.09 (6.75) |
Afghanistan coasted through group A, with only the Netherlands challenging them strongly. Their bowling came through, despite the absence of Hamid Hassan, with only Bermuda making over 150 in a game they had well in hand. Karim Sadiq has been very consistent at the top and the middle order has capitalised, scoring rapidly. Namibia were also undefeated in their group, but did so with very tight victories over Ireland and Uganda, and some other scares. When their batting was on they scored very heavily, with multiple players producing innings of note; as the tournament progressed they've had more trouble however. Their bowling came through when it mattered, and they were deserving winners of a difficult group. Nevertheless, Namibia are rightly underdogs in this first final.
First Elimination Final | Netherlands | v | Scotland |
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Rating | 1965.2 | 1948.8 | |
Form | +2.9 | -31.0 | |
Expected Margin | Netherlands by 2 runs | ||
Qualifying Prob. | 9.4% | 7.9% | |
Leading Scorer | SJ Myburgh 245 @ 40.8 (131.01) | CS MacLeod 248 @ 41.33 (137.01) | |
Leading Wicket-taker | PW Borren 10 @ 12.10 (6.05) | RM Haq 12 @ 12.83 (5.56) |
The Netherlands have snuck under the radar a little bit. A big victory over Canada and a close loss to Afghanistan set them for second in the group early on, with big wins in their last three games making it a formality. The batting has been particularly strong and they look well placed to challenge for that final qualifying place. Scotland, by contrast, were fortunate to make it through, so easily might Berrington's final ball have been sent to or over the boundary. Their batting has produced big scores with contributions throughout the order, but their bowling has been repeatedly smashed - particularly by van der Westhuizen - and the possible loss of Sharif to injury won't help. The Dutch are slight favourites, but that's a very slight slight.
Second Elimination Final | Ireland | v | Canada |
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Rating | 2094.8 | 1910.1 | |
Form | +11.16 | -16.02 | |
Expected Margin | Ireland by 23 runs | ||
Qualifying Prob. | 28.9% | 4.7% | |
Leading Scorer | GC Wilson 206 @ 51.5 (124.09) | R Gunasakera 230 @ 32.85 (134.50) | |
Leading Wicket-taker | WB Rankin 12 @ 7.08 (3.69) | Junaid Siddiqui 10 @ 14.10 (5.35) |
Unlike the other five finalists, Canada arrive at this stage with some problems. Cheema's form is woeful, the kids in the top three are at turns brilliant and hopeless, they were beaten badly in the two games against the group leaders, and perhaps fortunate not to be over-hauled by Nepal in the final game. Their opponents unexpectedly didn't top the group, but did everything right throughout. Rankin has been near unplayable, and they rarely conceded more than a run-a-ball. Their concern is whether the batting will hold up when they need to; Stirling and Porterfield haven't been great, and Joyce has been slow. They have the firepower, but three straight games to qualify is a tall ask.
Group Review
Group A | ||
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Papua New Guinea | 1654.2 | Expected to challenge, they pushed Canada close, were competitive against Afghanistan, but lost to Bermuda, ending any remaining hopes. PNG had a lot of okay players with the bat and ball but no stand-outs; but they should be pleased with 4th in the group. |
Nepal | 1599.7 | Well suppported throughout; just for a moment it looked like they'd do the unthinkable and roll over Canada in the final game. They didn't, because their batting just isn't strong enough. The lowest scoring team in the tournament, but also the leading wicket-taker in Gauchan. |
Hong Kong | 1495.0 | Sixth, but oddly disappointing. The games they won were good, but they were mown down by the top teams. Will be very pleased with the batting of Atkinson and Irfan Ahmed; less pleased with the lack of wickets with the ball. |
Bermuda | 1552.8 | Stovell was immense with bat and ball, and Tucker's six hitting (particularly against PNG) was brilliant. Were competitive in most games, but they lack depth, and youth. |
Denmark | 1536.9 | A mostly terrible tournament for the Danes. Never looked like scoring enough runs, and after beating Bermuda in the first game were rarely competitive. |
Group B | ||
Kenya | 1750.9 | So close for Kenya. After losing badly to Ireland looked unlikely to beat Uganda and Italy, but found their feet and missed out by effectively a single run. Will be particularly pleased to see Obanda and Allan score runs as they continue to rebuild. |
Italy | 1638.3 | In a tight group, weren't too far from qualifying, nor too far from second last. Got plenty from Berg and can build around him and Sandri, if he stays around, and if they can find some locals. |
United States | 1716.7 | Lost their first three games having been positioned to win all of them. A lack of previous competition at this level obviously hurt them, and there are a few positive signs for the USA for future tournaments. The win over Scotland was the only major upset of the tournament. |
Uganda | 1683.5 | Batted last in every game, and never bowled the opposition out. Played well until their final two games without winning as many as they could have, but needed more runs from their top-3. Only one player scored 100 runs over the week. |
Oman | 1611.2 | The only team not to register a win. Were the worst batting lineup, and a poor bowling one. Zeeshan Siddiqui's 12 wickets were the only real statistical highlight, and even he was expensive. |
Cricket - Associate 22nd March, 2012 01:29:52 [#] [2 comments]
1st Test | New Zealand | v | South Africa |
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Pre-rating | 885.37 | 1181.00 | |
Form | +11.78 | -1.02 | |
Expected Margin | South Africa by 98 runs | ||
Actual Margin | Match Drawn | ||
Post-rating | 891.40 | 1178.45 |
The first test was determined by the events of days three and five; the double century stand between Smith and Kallis shifted the game from a low-scoring shootout between Martin and Philander into a race against the rain for South Africa. The rain comprehensively won on day 5, ruining what had looked like an intriguing day, as McCullum and Taylor were well set.
South Africa will be mostly pleased with the game, with both Smith and Rudolph - the two weakest links - scoring a fifty and a century. They might be a little concerned by the threat shown by their bowlers in reasonably helpful conditions. Philander continues his great first year of cricket, but Steyn looked out o rhythm taking only two wickets.
New Zealand will be pleased with the draw, having let the game slip on that third day, despite achieving a small lead. They ought to have put up a big lead; most of their batsmen got starts, but noone scored a fifty. If they continue to get starts they'll be confident of puting up a competitive total; but the opposite is just as likely, and the South African batting showed its teeth in Dunedin.
As always, rain could be a factor. The forecast is reasonable for the first few days, but mixed for the last two. A result is likely.
Rankings at 15th March 2012 | ||
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1. | England | 1304.23 |
2. | South Africa | 1178.45 |
3. | Australia | 1177.62 |
4. | Pakistan | 1128.35 |
5. | Sri Lanka | 1036.56 |
6. | India | 1023.29 |
7. | West Indies | 923.80 |
8. | New Zealand | 891.40 |
9. | Bangladesh | 601.34 |
10. | Zimbabwe | 543.69 |
11. | Ireland | 555.48 |
12. | Afghanistan | 514.53 |
13. | Scotland | 444.87 |
14. | Namibia | 407.53 |
15. | Kenya | 317.93 |
16. | U.S.A. | 296.99 |
17. | Uganda | 268.44 |
18. | U.A.E. | 212.22 |
19. | Netherlands | 202.55 |
20. | Nepal | 196.51 |
21. | Canada | 154.58 |
22. | Hong Kong | 148.65 |
23. | Cayman Is | 134.24 |
24. | Malaysia | 123.90 |
25. | Bermuda | 105.40 |
Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.
Cricket - Ratings - Test 15th March, 2012 07:37:06 [#] [0 comments]
A group as unpredictable as group A seems straight-forward. The Irish remain favourites, but they'll be challenged by both Scotland and the under-rated Namibia. The top-3 is far from set however, as Kenya, whose recent form is woeful, are confident recent inclusions will turn their form around and both Oman and Uganda have demonstrated a capacity or upsets. And Italy, boosted by the inclusion of experienced first-class players; and the United States, who can never be under-estimated, given their resources, if they are sufficiently organised. It would be an enormous surprise if the two big-name European sides didn't make the playoffs, but expect several upsets on this side of the draw.
Ireland | |||||||
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Rating | 2074.0 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 45% 2nd\3rd: 48% Qual.: 40% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL. | ||||||
Core Player | George Dockrell | The young spinner has impressed observers wherever he has played, on slow turning pitches his accuracy and flight will be key weapons. | |||||
Key Performer | Paul Stirling | Ireland's most consistently dangerous batsman and a handy spinner. If Stirling has a big tournament Ireland will be hard to stop. | |||||
On Twitter | Jon Coates, Phil Simmons, Emmet Riordan, Tim Holt, Ian Callender, Justin Smyth, Ger Siggins, John Boomer, A Seat in the Pavilion, Barry Chambers, Cricket Ireland |
Clear favourites to top their group and qualify. Ireland's depth may be their greatest strength as the tournament progresses. With no shortage of players with first class experience, variety in attack and one of the world's most brutal batsman to finish their presence in the latter stages is all but guaranteed. Winning through to Sri Lanka is still a big challenge though, with no margin for error. Their first game against Namibia might be particularly significant if the latter storm the group.
Kenya | |||||||
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Rating | 1723.8 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.7% 2nd\3rd: 11% Qual.: 2% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL; 3rd in Africa. | ||||||
Core Player | Collins Obuya | One of the last remnants of their golden generation; and a class player for over a decade. Still only 30; captaincy and on-field puts a lot on his plate. | |||||
Key Performer | Ragheb Aga | A recent addition to the side where has been the best performer; Aga played with Sussex for several years and could make the difference. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Kenya, Nick Deverell |
Seeded second, but unfavoured to win through. Kenya's recent form has been poor, they sent their youth side to the African qualifers and limped into fourth; they were beaten 6-2 by Namibia last year, and 3-0 by Ireland last month. Still, despite the losses, they are one of the most experienced T20 sides at the tournament, and the indications are that the Kenyans come into this tournament confident they can make an impact.
Scotland | |||||||
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Rating | 2006.7 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 26% 2nd\3rd: 58% Qual.: 27% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL. | ||||||
Core Player | Kyle Coetzer | Scotland's best batsman; the opener isn't known as a T20 player, but at this level, a solid 50 is often enough. | |||||
Key Performer | Richie Berrington | The 24 year old all-rounder ha sbeen in brilliant form recently, scoring runs heavily and quickly. A match winner on his day. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Scotland, David Kelso, Ian Robert Flannigan, Fantasy Bob, Ben Fox, Kat Heathcote |
Scotland sometimes come across as Ireland's jealous and jaded older brother. A more than capable side who've gone through a rebuilding process recently and are now flush with talented youth. The loss of Davey will be felt, but there is talent enough in this squad to both top the group and qualify for the WT20 proper. If they have a weakness it is their bowling, and they'll need a good tournament from Majid Haq with the ball.
Namibia | |||||||
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Rating | 2009.1 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 26% 2nd\3rd: 59% Qual.: 27% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 2nd in Africa. | ||||||
Core Player | Craig Williams | As devastating a batsman as nay in this tournament and useful bowler. Has scored heavily and quickly in previous tournaments and Namibia will need the same. | |||||
Key Performer | Louis van der Westhuizen | Absolutely dominated the African qualifiers with bat and ball. A repeat performance will book Namibia to Sri Lanka. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Namibia |
One of the real danger sides; with a power-packed batting lineup that can win any game. Their performances in the past few years have been outstanding, but they've periodically suffered inexplicable losses (including the African qualifiers final to Uganda) they they can't afford in this tournament. They lack depth to their squad - their best batsmen are also their best bowlers - but their core is as good as any here.
Oman | |||||||
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Rating | 1652.7 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.2% 2nd\3rd: 4% Qual.: 0.7% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 3rd in Asia. | ||||||
Core Player | Vaibhav Wategaonkar | Oman's top run scorer in the Asian qualifiers and the last WCL3. Will be needed to anchor the innings. | |||||
Key Performer | Aamir Kaleem | The most successful of Oman's spinners at the Asian qualifiers. They'll need the same consistency in the UAE. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Oman, Omani Cricket |
Oman scraped into the finals with a last ball four against Malaysia. Competitive in every game, except Afghanistan, they were oddly devoid of star performances throughout the qualifiers. That depth will hold them in good stead here, as will their knowledge of local conditions. It is unlikely that wil be enough to win them a place in the playoffs however.
Italy | |||||||
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Rating | 1493.1 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0% 2nd\3rd: 0.2% Qual.: 0.03% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 2nd in Europe. | ||||||
Core Player | Peter Petricola | Consistently one of Italy's best batsmen in previous tournaments and a handy bowler. | |||||
Key Performer | Michael Di Venuto | A player with an immense record at first class record, but limited international opportunities. It may surprise Australians that he is still playing, but at 38 he is not too old to influence this competition. | |||||
On Twitter | Nicola Sbetti, Joe Scuderi |
Development officers tend to snub Italy because of their dependence on imports; this team being different only in their quality. Di Venuto and Gareth Berg could do some damage for the Italians, and it can't be ruled out that they challenge for the playoffs. No question that having players of that quality around will boost their squad, now and in the future. Hopefully the few non-ring-ins can use that to their advantage.
Uganda | |||||||
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Rating | 1674.6 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.4% 2nd\3rd: 5% Qual.: 1% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 1st in Africa. | ||||||
Core Player | Roger Mukasa | A true all-rounder in that he bats, bowls and occasionally keeps. Just 22 and also the top scorer in Kenya's East Africa Premier League. | |||||
Key Performer | Arthur Kyobe | Like Mukasa, young, talented and prolific. Scores at a faster rate but a little less consistently. | |||||
On Twitter | Uganda Cricket Association, Innocent Ndawula, Abdu Wasike, Robert Madoi, Diana Musiime, Aisha Nassanga, Ismail D. Kigongo |
A very dangerous side; were recently relegated from WCL2, but beat Namibia in the final of the African T20, and their teams dominated the Kenyan domestic T20 tournament. Young and fit, which means the fast-paced tournament will suit them. But had troube on UAE pitches when they played there in the I-Trophy. Will almost certainly cause an upset or two, but will probably struggle to make the playoffs.
United States | |||||||
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Rating | 1758.3 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 1% 2nd\3rd: 15% Qual.: 3% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 2nd in America. | ||||||
Core Player | Sushil Nadkarni | Undoubtedly the most talented player in their squad, but not young. He'll need to score consistently, moreso than big for the US to progress. | |||||
Key Performer | Muhammad Asad Ghous | Spin will undoubtedly feature in the UAE and Ghous is the young incumbent. If he can keep things tight the raw batting talent in his team might win a few games. | |||||
On Twitter | Peter Della Penna, Jamie Harrison, Burton de Witt, Matt Ferenchick, Bandon Decker, Dream Cricket, David Mutton, Jon Marthaler, Matt Becker, Jonathon Tannenwald, Diane, Cow Corner, Terry Coffey, Stephen Rooke, Devanshu Mehta | ||||||
Live Audio | US Cricketer (telecast games) |
If Americans don't like cricket, why are there so many of them on twitter? And if they only like foreign teams, why are they so keen to watch the American national side? But let's leave those questions for another day. With the talent they have at their disposal the USA ought to be a contender. I suspect though, that their rating is a little high, and they'll wind up disappointing. Certainly their performances in recent times against even a weakened Canada were fairly poor. They ought to be able to compete with everyone in this format though; as for most teams here; a little luck, some good performances, sneak into the playoffs, and then see what happens.
Other persons on twitter following the WT20Q (or associate cricket)...
Andrew Nixon, Tim Brooks, QuipuTV, Jon Newton, Dubai Sports City, Shahriar Khan, Steffi Wes, Cricket Europe, Cricket Lovers, Sabah, Paul Radley.
Cricket - Associate 12th March, 2012 23:04:47 [#] [2 comments]
On paper, group A looks relatively straight-forward: Afghanistan are clearly the best side; the Netherlands and Canada are clear favourites for the top-3; WCL2 teams, Papua New Guinea and Hong Kong are the most likely challengers, and the other three make up the numbers. Hopefully it will not be that predictable, and of course, a single upset could swing things around. Most likely though, the weakest few teams will upset the middle two often enough that any major upset won't change the final standings. The Dutch and Canadians are certainly vulnerable to upsets though, and either could miss the playoffs if key players fail to perform.
Afghanistan | |||||||
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Rating | 2019.4 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 45% 2nd\3rd: 53% Qual.: 40% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL; 1st in Asia. | ||||||
Core Player | Mohammad Nabi | Leading wicket-taker in the Asian qualifiers, and a useful batsman; will be suited to the UAE pitches where he has played a lot o cricket. | |||||
Key Performer | Hamid Hassan | The injury prone pace bowler is too good for most batsmen at this level. If he stays fit his ability to remove the top order makes almost any total defendable. | |||||
On Twitter | Afghanistan Cricket, Fazel Fazly |
Reigning champions, without seeming quite as dominant of late. Clear favourites to top the weaker group, but after that anything can happen. Along with Shahzad, they have three players who could play in most test sides, but their lack of depth - particularly in batting - means they can be beaten. Would be a huge surprise if they are not there at the pointy end of the tournament.
Netherlands | |||||||
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Rating | 1985.5 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 34% 2nd\3rd: 61% Qual.: 33% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL. | ||||||
Core Player | Tom Cooper | Clever batsman with a big season for South Australia behind him that brought him into Australian contention. Will anchor any Netherlands success. | |||||
Key Performer | Alexei Kervezee | A mainstay for Worcestershire, and still only 22, but a poor record in Dutch internationals. The Netherlands need him to step up in this tournament. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Blog NL, Cricket Netherlands, Rod Lyall, RG Vleeming, Harold, Marko Koning |
The second best of the four associates at the last world cup, but entering this tournament with a glaring hole marked Ryan ten Doeschate. They struggled earlier in the Caribbean T20 in January, beating only the Combined Campuses and Colleges. While that level of performance ought to get them to the play-offs, it won't be enough to overcome the teams in group B.
Canada | |||||||
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Rating | 1936.9 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 21% 2nd\3rd: 70% Qual.: 24% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | Automatic WCL; 1st in America. | ||||||
Core Player | Jimmy Hansra | No longer captain, but still the class batsman in the side after the retirement of Bagai. Will need to score heavily to support a fragile batting lineup. | |||||
Key Performer | Rizwan Cheema | Rank slogger or not, Cheema can change a game in a few overs. If he explodes when it matters Canada can qualify. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Canada, Nigel Reed, Zubin Surkari, Faraz Sarwat, Vimal Hardat, Matthew Moore, Arsalan Qadir |
A team in transistion for a while now, and a bright future. They won the American qualifiers despite sending a weaker side, but performed badly in the Caribbean T20 in January. Their biggest problem there was a tendency to slog aimlessly when they needed to lift the run-rate. Their young players - particularly Nitish Kumar and Hirat Patel - are immensely talented, but they need to learn to pace their innings if they are to put up consistent totals. Their bowling is better than most, and Baidwan in particular could cause problems. Can definitely qualify if things fall their way.
Papua New Guinea | |||||||
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Rating | 1601.9 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.2% 2nd\3rd: 5% Qual.: 0.8% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 1st in East-Asia/Pacific. | ||||||
Core Player | Asad Vala | PNG's most consistent batsman. Will, with Tony Ura, be expected to provide a quick start. | |||||
Key Performer | Geraint Jones | The former English keeper hasn't yet played for the land of his birth, but he is a class above most players in the tournament. If he can score heavily PNG might scrape into the playoffs. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket PNG, Dan Faunt |
Known for their fielding and raw athleticism, the Barramundi are big improvers both on and off the field over the last few years. Their preparation was disrupted when their coach got selected for Australia, but their squad has been playing throughout Australia in the past few months, which ought to help. Are capable of making the playoffs if things fall their way, but will probably be found out with the bat too often to be a serious threat.
Bermuda | |||||||
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Rating | 1565.9 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.1% 2nd\3rd: 3% Qual.: 0.4% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 3rd in America. | ||||||
Core Player | David Hemp | 271 first-class games; Bermuda's fortunes have risen and fallen under Hemp's influence; now 41, one of his last appearances on the international stage. | |||||
Key Performer | Lionel Cann | Like Hemp, no longer young, but scored heavily and quickly in the American qualifiers and they'll need the same to do well here. | |||||
On Twitter | Balldinho |
A team in decline, as some very good players have aged, and their limited population struggles to replace them. Copped some unfair criticism from Geoff Boycott in the past year over this decline, when really the surprise ought to be that they can compete at all. Nevertheless, will do well not to come bottom in their group.
Hong Kong | |||||||
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Rating | 1470.8 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.0% 2nd\3rd: 0.3% Qual.: 0.05% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 2nd in Asia. | ||||||
Core Player | Munir Dar | An experienced player who anchors the middle order; scoring heavily in the qualifiers and an important bowler on turning pitches. | |||||
Key Performer | Irfan Ahmed | Opening bowler and batsman; quick, erratic, free-scoring, unreliable. If Irfan has a good game, Hong Kong can beat anyone; if. | |||||
On Twitter | Charlie Burke, Hong Kong Cricket Association |
One of the emerging teams in world cricket, with a bunch of young talents including Jamie Atkinson, Nizakat Khan and Mark Ferguson. Hong Kong pushed Afghanistan to the limit in the Asian qualifiers final, and ought to have won. Ignore their rating - it is lower than it ought to be because of weaker performances in previous tournaments - Hong Kong are the most likely team to over-turn one of the three WCL1 teams.
Denmark | |||||||
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Rating | 1606.4 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.2% 2nd\3rd: 5% Qual.: 0.8% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 1st in Europe. | ||||||
Core Player | Frederik Klokker | Denmark's keeper and only player with first class experience; Klokker was top scorer in the qualifiers and the Dane's top scorer in their unsuccessful WCL3 campaign. Few teams are more dependent on one batsman. | |||||
Key Performer | Bashir Shah | The leading wicket-taker in the European qualifiers; in the UAE his miserly off-spin will be essential to success. | |||||
On Twitter | ? Any Danish fans out there? |
A team that have struggled of late in WCL competitions, and unlikely to be well prepared coming off a European winter. Their bowling was good in the qualifiers, against a weaker standard, but their batting was fragile. The need to win 4 or 5 of 7 games means they are highly unlikely to make the playoffs, but (like all teams here) they are capable of upsetting anyone.
Nepal | |||||||
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Rating | 1536.9 | Placing Probabilities | 1st: 0.04% 2nd\3rd: 2% Qual.: 0.3% | ||||
Path to Qualifiers | 4th in Asia. | ||||||
Core Player | Paras Khadka | The captain, key bowler and leading run-scorer in the qualifiers. Possibly relied on for too much given his limitations. | |||||
Key Performer | Basanta Regmi | The purveyor of very accurate left-arm medium, who will do well on the low UAE pitches. Not a match-winner, but they are thin on the ground for Nepal. | |||||
On Twitter | Cricket Nepal, Birat Raya, Sirish Paudel, Pushpa Poudel |
Nepal have a batting problem. Despite sneaking past the UAE in the Asian qualifiers at home, they were never dominant in a game, winning two very close contests over their rivals, and losing three others. Only one player scored, Khadka, scored over 100 runs for the tournament, and their bowling is not good enough to win games from that sort of platform. Like most teams they can challenge and win any game, but they'll struggle to win enough to be there when it matters.
Cricket - Associate 11th March, 2012 23:19:41 [#] [0 comments]
With only a little exagerration, Tuesday 13th March might well mark the day that cricket became a truly global sport. It is fair to say that no associate tournament has ever been as widely promoted, or as keenly anticipated; profiling articles of most participating teams have appeared on cricinfo and their prospects discussed on various podcasts - albeit by people with limited knowledge of associate cricket.
Incremental increases in associate coverage have been occuring for some time, driven by the sustained success of Ireland, the romantic story of the skillful Afghanistan, and a gradual increase in mainstream coverage in Canada and the United States partly led by ESPN. It has been helped considerably through the implementation of meritocratic tournaments; whereas the ICC trophy tended to sneak up on people, the flawed World Cricket League allows people to track associate progress. The World T20 Qualifiers were a step forward again. The multiple regional tournaments played over the course of a year were interesting throughout, even with the limited coverage many of them received.
The highlight was Asia, which not only had limited visual coverage, via Nepalese tv, but the biggest upset, with the U.A.E. failing to qualify for the finals, losing out to Nepal and Oman by the barest of margins.
The qualifier in the U.A.E. promises to be just as close, with a nearly professional standard of play, and, most excitingly, proper coverage. From a purely comercial perspective, ESPNStar's decision to provide tv and online coverage for the playoffs on the last three days is a massive event. While associate nations have been in all the world cups, their treatment has tended towards patronising, their presence to fill up numbers in a tournament format designed to exclude them. Here, in their own tournament, the true depth and competitiveness of these nations will be apparent.
Probably more important in the long term will be QuipuTV's online coverage from the Global Cricket Academy, with 14 games across 7 days, using 4 cameras. Online coverage of cricket has lagged some way behind other sports, but the last year has seen a massive leap forward, and it is reasonable to expect further, low-cost coverage of associate cricket in the future - if the ICC continues to fund it. All 16 teams will be covered at some point, most more than once; a great opportunity to properly assess the depth of associate cricket, and for their national supporters (few as they sometimes might be) to see their national side in action.
The tournament itself has an odd, but fair format, favouring the best teams in the group stage, but allowing every team to dream, at least for the first few games.
The group stage will be played over 8 days: four rounds, a rest day, then three more rounds. This is insanely compact - funny how easy it is to make a short tournament without tv companises making unhelpful demands - and with teams needing to win almost every game to qualify, will favour sides with the depth to cover for injuries and poor performances from their star players.
The first qualifier pits the two group winners against each other. The winner progressing to the final, and the WT20 proper; the loser to the second qualifier played on the final morning.
The second and third placed teams in each group go into a four team playoff; effectively a round-of-16 and quarter-final. The winner of the playoff will enter the second qualifier against the losing group winner, for the final place in the WT20, and qualifer final.
Assuming equal skills, the group winners have a 75% chance of qualifying and second and third just 12.5% each: winning the group is essential to maximising a team's chance of qualifying. With so many games, it will take more than a slice of luck for the weaker teams to progress even to the playoffs, but at this point, optimism reigns (as it should).
Unprecedented coverage, a growing community of associate supporters online, the promise of a large number of close and competitive games, more riding on each game than almost any other cricket match outside the world cup semis/final, and a healthy number of first class players representing their nations - an increase in quality but not so many as to question whether they are representative. With more teams than either the WT20 or the World Cup, this tournament should be a big deal. Apparently, for the first time ever, it might be.
Cricket - Associate 9th March, 2012 00:50:01 [#] [0 comments]
I-Cup Match | U.A.E. | v | Scotland |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 219.51 | 437.45 | |
Form | +50.06 | -21.39 | |
Expected Margin | Scotland by 59 runs | ||
Actual Margin | Scotland by 7 wickets | ||
Pre-rating | 212.22 | 444.87 |
An unexpectedly good win for Scotland. The first day of the match seemed to be repeating a pattern of team's scoring a hundred or less in the first innings before coming back to win. While Goudie and Sharif rolled the U.A.E. for an even ton, the Safires ended at 5/121 in response. Berrington continues to impress though, anchoring the innings with his first first-class ton, to set up a 205 run lead. The second innings from the U.A.E. was much better however, and t 4/280 nearing the end of day 3 a tight finish looked likely. Three quick wickets from Goudie turned the match right on stumps, and Haq and Berrington took the tourists home on the final day.
The result puts Scotland second on the table, although Afghanistan lurks with a game in hand. They have difficult games to follow, that they'll need to win, but they ought to be satisfied that they return from Sharjah with a victory over an in-form side. The U.A.E. move back to third, but with easier games to follow, they remain a threat to play the final at the end of the year.
Forthcoming Series
3 Tests | New Zealand | v | South Africa |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 885.37 | 1181.00 | |
Form | +11.78 | -1.02 | |
Expected Margin | South Africa by 98 runs |
A potentially interesting series. The ratings suggest New Zealand have a 29% probability of victory, suggesting a 2-1 victory for the superior South African side. What happens on and off the field will have a big part to play in that result however. The Autumn start means rain and bad light are significant issues; the strength of the South African bowling and New Zealand conditions ought to ensure results, but at least one game will probably be drawn. South Africa have dominated New Zealand in most recent contests; while the New Zealand batting is improved on its nadir, and their bowling at home is capable of unseating a South African lineup with its own fragilities, they are rightly favoured.
If New Zealand does win it is likely to be a low-scoring affair. The batting of Smith and Boucher hs been poor for some time. If New Zealand can restrict Amla, de Villiers and Kallis then they are capable of winning the series. They are a young squad though, while the South African team is in its peak years. Having reached the pinnacle three years ago, they have struggled to keep improving, and been passed by England, and caught by Australia. They have the opportunity this year to prove themselves as a better than merely good side; with a tour to England. Their next few seasons are highly favourable to taking the official top ranking, but they'll need to win convincingly than they hve been, and in these conditions to be accepted as such.
Rankings at 4th March 2012 | ||
---|---|---|
1. | England | 1304.23 |
2. | South Africa | 1181.00 |
3. | Australia | 1177.62 |
4. | Pakistan | 1128.35 |
5. | Sri Lanka | 1036.56 |
6. | India | 1023.29 |
7. | West Indies | 923.80 |
8. | New Zealand | 885.37 |
9. | Bangladesh | 601.34 |
10. | Zimbabwe | 543.69 |
11. | Ireland | 555.48 |
12. | Afghanistan | 514.53 |
13. | Scotland | 444.87 |
14. | Namibia | 407.53 |
15. | Kenya | 317.93 |
16. | U.S.A. | 296.99 |
17. | Uganda | 268.44 |
18. | U.A.E. | 212.22 |
19. | Netherlands | 202.55 |
20. | Nepal | 196.51 |
21. | Canada | 154.58 |
22. | Hong Kong | 148.65 |
23. | Cayman Is | 134.24 |
24. | Malaysia | 123.90 |
25. | Bermuda | 105.40 |
Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.
Cricket - Ratings - Test 4th March, 2012 11:25:18 [#] [0 comments]