5 Tests	Australia	v	England
Pre-rating	1099.8		1217.2
Form	-10.6		-2.6
Expected Margin	England by 9 runs

How do you preview a series with no matches since their last meeting? Barely had the previous series ended than the marketing for the next kicked into gear; the bowlers licked their wounds, some of whom are now fit; and both sides rejigged for the different conditions prevailing in Australia. England with tall quicks; Australia by choosing players based on their form in an otherwise meaningless slogfest in India.

The latter is a bad sign. In theory, home advantage indicates this will be a very tight series, and the English edition was that, despite the 3-0 scoreline. But the last Ashes in Australia indicated that England were better prepared than Australia for batting endlessly on flat bouncy pitches, and bowling in the channel searching for mistakes. England ground out their home victory by scoring just enough and taking advantage of Australia's inability to consistently do the same. Australia's bowling was strong, but lacked the killer edge and was blunted by Bell in particular. Their batting lurched from feeble to competent and back again from session to session. Despite this, the same side, more or less, will line up in Brisbane. Partly for lack of options, mostly for lack of reliable data to indicate who might succeed (if any) where others have not.

With Brisbane likely to rain, and Adelaide likely to play dead, we might enter the back half of the series before any advantage is gained. Australia's selection of Warner and Johnson indicates they are willing to take risks to try and force an unlikely win. The smart money though is on them having little impact when it matters and England to continue the pattern of the last 5 years: play to stay in the game, and take advantage of collapses. Australia are sure to offer them ample opportunity.

2nd Test	India	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1116.9		953.6
Form	+52.9		-14.5
Expected Margin	India by 132 runs
Actual Margin	India by an innings and 126 runs
Post-rating	1142.1		936.5
Series rating	1371.1		694.2

A short end to a short and unmemorable series. Designed as a virtual exhibition, the West Inds played their secondary part a little too enthusiastically, neither particularly invested nor seemingly interested in the end result. Chanderpaul deserved better in his 150th test, but apart from Shillingford, there wasn't much to illuminate the match at his end. Tendulkar briefly rolled back the clock before giving way to Pujara, Kohli and Sharma. Ojha and Ashwin took the wickets, and India ran up another huge win at home.

For mine, I said almost everything I had to say about Tendulkar in my piece on Ponting. He combined all the qualities of good batsmanship without being peerless in any of them, being neither as strong a technician as Dravid, nor as flamboyant as Lara, nor as intense as Ponting. His bowling was under-rated; his longevity and influence best marked by a single closing note. If you check Tendulkar's record, Cricinfo has no figure for his strike-rate, almost unique amongst modern batsmen. This is because the balls are missing from this test vs Sri Lanka, in Chandigarh in 1990. Such was the span of his career, that he first played for India in the days when Doordarshan would tape over old matches and scorecards could be lost; and left with a 24-7 media cycle trying to record his every movement and gesture noting everything for posterity. A career so long its end isn't even era-defining, because it crossed so many; encompassing a period both as a prodigy and the old-man of cricket; a superstar and a player whose best years were limited by injury; and as both the lone hand on which everything depended and as one part of a quadrumvirate. It is a singularly incredible and inscrutable career arc; and as it has been throughout, its meaning is sure to be interpreted and re-interpreted for a long time to come.

Rankings at 19th November 2013
1.	South Africa	1324.1
2.	England	1217.2
3.	India	1142.1
4.	Pakistan	1111.2
5.	Australia	1099.8
6.	Sri Lanka	997.9
7.	West Indies	936.5
8.	New Zealand	873.2
9.	Bangladesh	611.7
11.	Zimbabwe	560.2
10.	Afghanistan	597.0
12.	Ireland	558.9
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 19th November, 2013 23:47:00   [#] [0 comments] 

The World T20 Qualifiers are set to start in a few hours and I'm pleased to note that interest and breadth of commentary has again stepped up a level from the previous tournament of twenty months ago. This edition sees six teams progress, and unusually for the ICC, a format that promises to mix excitement and meaning throughout its length. If the warmup matches are any guide every team has a reasonable opportunity of making the play-offs; once there, two wins or less is sufficient to book a passage to Bangladesh.

Having already previewed the tournament at length on the podcast I will use this post to make a few notes unsuited to the oral format.

TV coverage

The ICC will be live-streaming selected games from the opening rounds; and ESPN or its affiliate, as the global broadcaster is lined up to do the playoffs. A list, follows:

ICC streamed matches
15 November: Ireland v Namibia, Canada v USA, Afghanistan v Netherlands
16 November: Namibia v UAE, Ireland v Canada, Afghanistan v Scotland
18 November: Denmark v Kenya, Scotland v Nepal
19 November: Netherlands v Denmark, Scotland v Kenya
20 November: Netherlands v Nepal
22 November: PNG v Denmark, Afghanistan v Nepal
23 November: Netherlands v Kenya, Bermuda v Nepal
24 November: Afghanistan v Kenya

TV broadcast
27 November: 2nd v 3rd Qualifying Finals
28 November: Qualification Finals (L2v3 vs W4v5)
29 November: Semi-Finals
30 November: 3rd vs 4th Playoff and Final

Previews and pointers

A number of excellent previews have been written. And there is ongoing, generally well-informed commentary on both Facebook and Twitter. It is worth returning to my previews from 2012 (Group A|Group B) for useful follows. A probably incomplete list of previews follows:

Russell Degnan and Andrew Nixon, Associate and Affiliate Cricket Podcast
Peter Della Penna, Cricinfo: Battle royal for World T20 prize
Jack Sheldon, Deep Extra Cover: Group A Group B
Llewelyn Scott-Hoy: World T20 Qualifier Preview
Tim Brooks, All Out Cricket: Group A Group B
Martin Jones, The Popping Crease: Qualifier Preview A-D H-K N-P S-U
Arjun Vidyarthi, SuperSport: Kenyan Preview
Osman Samiuddin, UAE National: Group A Group B
Tarqun Brook, Adamski Loves Cricket: World T-20 Qualifiers
ICC/CricketEurope: Group A Group B
Sammy Edwards, T20 International: Day by day previews

Groups by the Numbers

Rankings in T20 are notoriously unreliable. The regional and HPP bubbles are just as problematic as the full member one is. Nevertheless, you can only go off the date you have, and any previews that ignore past performance are probably equally as flawed. The following is the best estimate at various scenarios, using monte-carlo modelling.

Group A	Rating	Form	Weight	Qual.	1st Grp	Top-3 Grp	Top-5 Grp
Ireland	3203.6	-74.8	8.9	96.9%	88.0%	99.8%	100.0%
U.A.E.	2945.3	+9.1	9.1	63.8%	8.3%	76.2%	94.3%
Namibia	2838.4	-92.2	10.2	42.8%	2.0%	44.5%	80.3%
Canada	2801.7	-11.3	11.6	35.0%	1.0%	33.3%	72.3%
Hong Kong	2745.2	+80.1	10.5	23.5%	0.4%	19.3%	55.0%
Italy	2713.4	-38.0	8.6	18.1%	0.2%	13.6%	44.9%
U.S.A.	2671.0	+23.4	14.7	12.6%	0.0%	8.9%	32.5%
Uganda	2621.6	-31.5	10.8	7.4%	0.0%	4.5%	20.8%

Group B	Rating	Form	Weight	Qual.	1st Grp	Top-3 Grp	Top-5 Grp
Afghanistan	2991.6	-22.2	14.0	74.6%	36.4%	82.2%	97.8%
Scotland	2954.2	+32.9	9.8	67.9%	27.9%	74.3%	95.4%
Netherlands	2925.0	-21.7	6.8	62.0%	20.7%	66.2%	94.9%
Kenya	2876.8	+8.8	18.2	50.4%	12.1%	49.9%	89.7%
Nepal	2741.5	+30.9	9.6	24.8%	2.1%	17.6%	62.1%
P.N.G.	2654.3	+28.6	9.9	11.3%	0.5%	6.0%	32.6%
Denmark	2617.8	+5.5	10.4	7.7%	0.3%	3.6%	23.4%
Bermuda	2479.0	+8.7	12.4	1.1%	0.0%	0.2%	4.2%

Cricket - Associate 15th November, 2013 14:58:09   [#] [0 comments] 

With the World T20 Qualifiers starting in the UAE, Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) and Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) discuss the tournament format, preview all sixteen teams across both groups and offer their predictions for who will make the playoffs. Three players kindly take the time to give us their thoughts, Andrew interviews Niall O'Brien of Ireland and Frederik Klokker of Denmark, and Jack Sheldon (@jacksheldon93) discusses Italy's chances with Gareth Berg.

Direct Download Running Time 58min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - men's women's, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 12th November, 2013 22:46:11   [#] [0 comments] 

1st Test	India	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1096.3		963.8
Form	+46.7		+8.0
Expected Margin	India by 116 runs
Actual Margin	India by an innings and 51 runs
Post-rating	1116.9		953.6

Nothing like a series of home matches to boost one's ranking and blood new players. India showed the same ruthlessness with which they dispatched Australia in working over the West Indies. But in a sign that their rebuild is coming to fruition even as the last of their old guard takes his final bow, the debutants provided the firepower. Shami took 4/71, with only Samuels (65) providing any real resistance. For a brief period, Shillingford 6/167 raised the possibility of a stiff fight, but Rohit Sharma (177) and Ashwin (124) took the game away with an outstanding partnership. The latter's upright stance and wristy strokes so reminiscent of VVS Laxman that the opportunity to replace Tendulkar with a bowler must be firmly in the Indian selector's minds.

Chanderpaul, about to reach his own milestone in a cap so battered it seems to have felt every loss he's played in, was not out 31 at the end of the second innings. He isnt batting too low. He just has nothing behind him. Sammy is a very admirable cricketer, but he is no number 7, until you consider just how bad those following him are. Shami's 5/47 proved the first dig was no fluke, though it was Ashwin (3/46) who got the ball rolling; and it is hard to see the West Indies batting turning around this result. India are a very inexperienced side nowadays, but they've already shown the skills - at home at least - to pile on huge runs and defend it with ease. They move up to third in the rankings, though it is partly illusory, because of a run of form. The real test was only ever postponed.

Rankings at 11th November 2013
1.	South Africa	1324.1
2.	England	1217.2
3.	India	1116.9
4.	Pakistan	1111.2
5.	Australia	1099.8
6.	Sri Lanka	997.9
7.	West Indies	953.6
8.	New Zealand	873.2
9.	Bangladesh	611.7
11.	Zimbabwe	560.2
10.	Afghanistan	597.0
12.	Ireland	558.9
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 11th November, 2013 18:58:22   [#] [0 comments] 

2nd Test	Bangladesh	v	New Zealand
Pre-rating	607.7		874.6
Form	+7.2		+3.2
Expected Margin	New Zealand by 83 runs
Actual Margin	Match Drawn
Post-rating	611.7		873.2
Series Rating	740.7		740.7

A fine fight-back in the third innings by Bangladesh and a fair chunk of rain ensured anoother draw, and honours even in this series. Tamin Iqbal finally returned to scoring runs with 95 and 70, though he remains on track to match Ashraful for frustration, Miminul Haque continued to impress with 47 and 126* and Shakib took another 5 wicket haul. New Zealand will be plased by Corey Anderson's 116, Watling's 70*, Wagner's 5/64 and the number of starts. But in truth, with the fifth day washed out with the match intriguingly placed for either side to make a push, the result is a little unsatisfactory. Bangladesh will feel they can beat New Zealand at home, and New Zealand that they can continue to boss at least two sides beneath them. But we'll have to wait a while - and many mismatched series - to see whether that is the case.

2nd Test	Pakistan	v	South Africa
Pre-rating	1121.5		1313.5
Form	+7.6		-3.5
Expected Margin	South Africa by 96 runs
Actual Margin	South Africa by an innings and 92 runs
Post-rating	1111.2		1324.1
Series Rating	1126.1		1309.0

Regression to the mean, and some way beyond for both sides. The series rating puts them near enough to their expected performance, such was the turnaround. A rather odd scorecard, with Steyn setting the tone with an early wicket and Imran Tahir taking 5/32 to keep Pakistan to only 99. South Africa's response was patchy, with only two scores over 26; they just happened to be 164 for AB de Villiers and 234 for the master of ugly runs, Graeme Smith. Saeed Ajmal took 6/151, but couldn't keep the first innings margin within anything other than inevitable loss.

Misbah-ul-Haq (97) and Asad Shafiq (130) provided a 197 runs of resistance, but otherwise the proceedings were only enlivened by Faf du Plessis breaking the record for ball tampering with the largest first innings margin - the previous, and perhaps only instance being 331. In any case, Duminy and Tahir took the bulk of the wickets and the game was won by an innings plus with over a day to spare.

As usual, much was written about the unsatisfactory nature of two-test series; but the reality is that ten test teams can only play so many matches and some series must be shorter. Whether the best series are being short-changed is debatable; for the most part, the better (and conveniently), richer teams play the longest series. If test cricket was moved to a structure that scheduled according to competitive context then that aim becomes possible. But current complaints ring mostly with hypocrisy: that their series was not longer, not a plan for action.

2 Tests	India	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1096.3		963.8
Form	+46.7		+8.0
Expected Margin	India by 116 runs

It seems hard to fathom that anyoneactually cares about the result of this series, though the players will undoubtedly try, if they can avoid the surrounding nonsense. Sachin began his career with India rated 1063.8, and it is rather odd to note that they've trod a relatively consistent path since; unlike a bowler, the marginal value of a batsman is limited. India are coming off their most fruitful series in many years, having annihilated Australia on their last outing, and they may well do again with the new core of Dhawan, Pujara and Kohli looking as good as those they are to replace. Nor should this surprise, the most marked change in Indian cricket since Tendulkar's debut (apart from the money) is the growth of the sport in India, and the growth of players from poorer areas. Unlike VVS, Dravid and Ganguly, the next crop of Indian batsmen are much closer to the best talents of the entire nation. Being the star around which an entire industry is built is an interesting place to finish a career though. His records will stand testament to his ability; the nonsense around his retirement to his mythical standing; but his true legacy won't be known for another decade. Indian cricket has two last tests on their foundation player before we find out what lies beneath.

Rankings at 5th November 2013
1.	South Africa	1324.1
2.	England	1217.2
3.	Pakistan	1111.2
4.	Australia	1099.8
5.	India	1096.3
6.	Sri Lanka	997.9
7.	West Indies	963.8
8.	New Zealand	873.2
9.	Bangladesh	611.7
11.	Zimbabwe	560.2
10.	Afghanistan	597.0
12.	Ireland	558.9
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 5th November, 2013 17:35:21   [#] [1 comment]