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The post mortem on a home series draw with the Kiwis is perhaps more complicated for Australia than it first appears. Mitigating factors include a New Zealand batting lineup as strong as any they've produced, competent bowling in conditions closer to that found on the other side of the Tasman, than the Australian mainland, and a narrow loss and big win that is not that far from expectations. Nevertheless, their batting is a shambles. Warner succeeded beyond all expectations - the third highest percentage of a completed fourth innings - but it is hard to see a significant future for four of the top seven, and Khawaja is far from safe either. Selectors are conservative, and the changes will probably be minimal, notwithstanding continuing injuries to the bowling stocks. For New Zealand, the win came against the opponent they most like to beat. Australia has rarely taken them seriously, which is a pity because it is always enjoyable cricket, even when mismatched. This win ought to be savoured particularly because it came on the back of young kids: Brownlie and Bracewell. There is potential in the team. If their batting continues to develop, and if they can unearth one genuine quick, the next few years could see some excellent cricket between the two rivals. Unfotunately, pecuniary considerations are likely to keep the series rare and short.
A game that largely passed me by, dominated from the off by a Pakistan side playing its best cricket in years. Bangladesh have struggled badly in recent times, with the faltering form of Tamin Iqbal largely to blame. Against England and India Bangladesh earnt a certain respectability for grinding out totals even if they were still peppered with collapses and inevitable losses. Their last few games have been merely inadequate, and Younis Khan is not one to let up with the bat. Nor Saeed Ajmal in helpful conditions with the ball. There isn't anything Bangladesh can do, at least in the short term. They are almost certainly playing their best side, and while they are let down by both poor discipline and fielding - both fixable - they will lose most games regardless. Cricket's rigid class structure and the decreasing value put in playing them has made test status a form of curse (albeit a lucrative one). Pakistan are putting together a decent run of results against weaker opposition, raising the possibility of a more keenly contested series against England than would have been the case two years ago. The main point of interest in the game to follow is whether the level of domination they showed in the first test can be maintained.
Forthcoming Series
If any further evidence was needed of the importance of Muralitharan to Sri Lanka the last year has been salutary. No wins in fourteen games - albeit with only four losses, and a number of rain affected results - they've not looked capable of taking enough wickets to win games. That may change in South Africa where the pitches have recently produced plenty of wickets, but their losses have indicated a different problem. While Sangakkara has continued to score heavy runs, Jayawardene's form has dropped and the runs have not been picked up elsewhere in the order. With a long tail and the menace of Steyn and co. even draws look an unlikely prospect. South Africa had the best of the series against Australia and no concerns with the ball - arguably Steyn, Philander, Tahir, Morkel and Kallis is the world's leading attack - but have their own batting issues: a longish tail and a struggling opening pair. They ought to have enough to win at least two matches against Sri Lanka however.
Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other. Cricket - Ratings - Test 17th December, 2011 22:22:51 [#] [0 comments]
Ratings - 6th December 2011
|
1st Test | Australia | v | New Zealand |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 1127.29 | 876.93 | |
Form | -11.61 | -24.18 | |
Expected Margin | Australia by 175 runs | ||
Actual Margin | Australia by 9 wickets | ||
Post-rating | 1128.15 | 869.25 |
A result reflective of the rankings, but not a performance from Australia that ought to have produced the result. Australia's bowling on the opening day was poor, New Zealand's stroke selection worse. Only Williamson was worked out, with Lyon producing another fine performance. McCullum, Ryder and Taylor merely gave their wicket away. Vettori and Brownlie's excellent partnership, cut short by another daft dismissal, still left them 150 runs short of what they ought to have achieved. Missing runouts and dropping catches in the Australian innings cost them another 150 or more runs, although Australia were themselves culpable of some poor stroke-play.
Pattinson's burst on the fourth morning was dramatic, but he was helped by wafting outside off stump from batsmen who are undoubtedly talented, but are wasting it if they don't work harder to protect their wicket. Ryder's lazy chip to Lyon was typical of a batsman who frustrates by being merely a fine cricketer, when he could be Jacques Kallis. New Zealand's collapse left little time to properly assess Australia, except Hughes, who could be replaced by a video of him being squared up and edging to slip, such is its frequency. Their catching was poor, the bowling of Siddle and Starc uninspired and their batting sloppy. If New Zealand get it together they could beat Australia; if Australia do too the margin will remain the same.
Forthcoming Series
2 Tests | Bangladesh | v | Pakistan |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-rating | 615.48 | 1051.47 | |
Form | -3.84 | +20.91 | |
Expected Margin | Pakistan by 168 runs |
Almost an identical expected margin to the above. Bangladesh are a little stronger at home and might trouble Pakistan if they can score runs. Unfortunately of late that hasn't seemed the case. Pakistan have looked a better side under Misbah ul Haq, combining, in the tradition of great Pakistan sides, sensible batting and exhilarating bowling. Saeed Ajmal has been dominant recently and on turning Bangladeshi pitches he might be unplayable. Two years ago Bangladesh served up some roads to post respectable results against India and England. If they do the same they might be able to draw, or provide a base for their bowlers. Most likely though, Pakistan will be too strong.
Rankings at 6th December 2011 | ||
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1. | England | 1333.15 |
2. | South Africa | 1179.41 |
3. | Australia | 1128.15 |
4. | India | 1093.74 |
5. | Pakistan | 1051.47 |
6. | Sri Lanka | 1036.58 |
7. | West Indies | 923.80 |
8. | New Zealand | 869.25 |
9. | Bangladesh | 622.73 |
10. | Zimbabwe | 556.62 |
11. | Ireland | 559.06 |
12. | Afghanistan | 514.53 |
13. | Scotland | 437.45 |
14. | Namibia | 407.53 |
15. | Kenya | 338.92 |
16. | U.S.A. | 296.99 |
17. | Uganda | 268.44 |
18. | U.A.E. | 219.51 |
19. | Netherlands | 202.55 |
20. | Nepal | 196.51 |
21. | Canada | 154.58 |
22. | Hong Kong | 148.65 |
23. | Cayman Is | 134.24 |
24. | Malaysia | 123.90 |
25. | Bermuda | 105.40 |
Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.
Cricket - Ratings - Test 5th December, 2011 23:30:15 [#] [0 comments]