2nd Test	Australia	v	India
Pre-rating	1244.5		1087.0
Form	-13.6		-47.3
Expected Margin	Australia by 129 runs
Actual Margin	Australia by 4 wickets
Post-rating	1239.2		1088.9

India really only lost three sessions in this match.

In the first session of day 2 they dropped from 4/311 to all out 408. They had a good, not great first day, but were well placed to make either a competitive score, or an inadequate one, and ended up with the latter.

In the first session of day 3 they let Australia move from 4/221 (then 6/247) to 6/351 (and eventually 505) with sloppy bowling that played to Johnson's considerable batting strengths, and not his equally considerable weaknesses.

In the first session of day 4 they collapses from 1/71 to 7/157 to Johnson and Hazlewood and the match was effectively over.

There are a couple of things to take out of that. The first is that Johnson and Hazlewood (indeed most quicks) are vastly more effective early in the day, when they are fresh. Vijay and Pujara very successfully negotiated Johnson on the first day - though he was far from his best. On subsequent days they let Australia get on a roll and noone seemed capable of stopping it.

The second is that Australia are pretty vulnerable, but have match winners, and in home conditions that has been enough in recent times. That each decisive session was at the start of the day points to a laxity of preparation or mindset (off-field events on day four in particular seemingly unsettling). The collapse on day four in Adelaide was similarly damaging, and as in Brisbane, decided the match.

India aren't a million miles from winning matches in this series, notwithstanding that their bowlers have been generally poor. Melbourne will offer a little more, and they could come back to tie this series. But to do so they need to grind their way through important sessions. So far they've shown only an ability to gift Australia key advantages with loose play.

3 Tests	South Africa	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1289.1		870.2
Form	-17.7		-6.7
Expected Margin	South Africa by 257 runs
Actual Margin	South Africa by an innings and 220 runs
Post-rating	1300.5		862.5

In the end, the expected margin was a grossly inadequate prediction. The West Indies had a good first hour and a bit, taking 3/57, and were never sighted thereafter. The loss of Roach hurt, as neither Taylor nor Cottrell could stem the runs or apply pressure, but Amla (208) and de Villiers (152) may have done the same to any attack, such is their skill.

It is unfortunate we'll never get to see them against their own, as Steyn, Philander and Morkel offer different tests of skill and mettle. In this case, the West Indies failed first to prevent Philander's constant probing from finding their outside edge; then in the second, with Steyn's pace and bounce, as they capitulated after following-on. It would be foolhardy to predict anything but a similar (if slightly less emphatic) result in the second test.

2 Tests	New Zealand	v	Sri Lanka
Pre-rating	951.0		1050.1
Form	+38.4		+16.3
Expected Margin	Tied Match

I couldn't resist predicting this as a tie, as the ratings so rarely predict them. Technically, New Zealand are very slight favourites. Given their recent form, and impressive comeback in the UAE; as well as the clear home advantage that they carry, and Sri Lanka's dismal touring record, this ought to be a comfortable victory. A team that was talented but young a couple of years ago is now finding their way in test crcket and producing not only performances, but increasingly results. Sri Lanka are a side increasingly capable of surprising. They had a very good 2014, defeating England away, and had both a narrow loss to South Africa and narrow victories over Pakistan at home. They too often depend on Sangakarra and Mathews to score their runs, and Herath to take their wickets, but Eranga and Pradeep showed they could exploit more helpful conditions in England and might do so again. Their biggest issue is likely to be that a 2-day warm-up is insufficient preparation to face a confident home side. Look for New Zealand to continue their ascension.

Rankings at 26th December 2014
1.	South Africa	1300.5
2.	Australia	1239.2
3.	Pakistan	1106.1
4.	India	1088.9
5.	England	1084.7
6.	Sri Lanka	1050.1
7.	New Zealand	951.0
8.	West Indies	862.5
10.	Bangladesh	594.6
12.	Zimbabwe	559.8
9.	Ireland	594.8
11.	Afghanistan	587.6
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 25th December, 2014 12:05:52   [#] [0 comments] 

Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to look back on some of the major themes of the past 12 months: promotion of associate cricket (14:40); the ascension of associate teams to test status (25:25); some of our highlights and players of the year (35:15); and the state of A+A cricket (46:30). There are a couple of tournament reviews, with the Africa Women's Trophy that serves as the regional qualifier (0:20) won by Zimbabwe, and Africa U/19 Girls won by Uganda (05:35), and a women's tournament in the gulf, won by the UAE (07:35). Afghanistan completed their tour of the UAE (10:00) but lost the series; and Kenya turned in some very poor results against Pakistan A (12:48). There is also governance news from Nepal (50:40), more proposed tournaments of questionable value in Canada and Europe (52:50), and some emerging opportunities for players and umpires in full member nations (59:15).

Direct Download Running Time 64min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - men's women's, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 24th December, 2014 22:22:06   [#] [0 comments] 

1st Test	Australia	v	India
Pre-rating	1250.4		1082.6
Form	-6.9		+74.7
Expected Margin	Australia by 134 runs
Actual Margin	Australia by 48 runs
Post-rating	1244.5		1087.0

A thoroughly entertaining test that was closer than the margin might have suggested. There is something poignant about Warner and Smith scoring the bulk of the runs; two occasionally maligned players reaching their batting peak much as Hughes would have. Warner began with the ease of someone who cared for little more than bludgeoning anything he could to all parts. India's obliging first five overs were, in the end, rather crucial to the result. Fortunately for them, and the match, the re-introduction of the bouncer brought Warner, the match, and the contest back onto an even keel.

Notwithstanding the margin - and without Kohli's mistimed shot, or Saha's nonsensical heave India might have, even ought to have won - India also took just 12 wickets in the match. Australia look a batsman short - two with Clarke now injured - but they still coasted along for long periods, and Adelaide was India's most likely venue to score heavily.

Kohli was immense, Vijay very good, and the others either unlucky or poor. The tail is long, and it is hard to see how Karn Sharma brings more with the ball than is lost from Ashwin's batting. The Australian pace attack will be stronger in Brisbane, though this was Lyon's match, who was rewarded for his persistence and variety. Off-spin bowlers in Australia have a hard life. Lyon will shortly become Australia's highest ever wicket-taker of that variety; ponder that a while. He is still new to the game, still struggling on slow, low pitches, but a very good bowler. This was due reward.

3 Tests	South Africa	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1289.1		870.2
Form	-17.7		-6.7
Expected Margin	South Africa by 257 runs

257 runs. That's not the margin of a game that swings one way or another, that's a flogging, by an innings and some, especially when you remember it accounts for the odd unavoidable draw. The West Indies are still producing committee reports at home, while the touring side goes into a contest with the world's best absent a decent consistent pace bowler, a batsman of class, not just talent, on the right side of 40, or a spinner not banned by the ICC.

South Africa probably won't win by 257 runs, because they are rebuilding part of their batting order, and adjusting the bowling to the loss of Kallis. But a few good sessions from any of Steyn, Philander and Morkel will settle this. The gulf in talent is decent, the gulf in quality is much bigger.

Rankings at 16th December 2014
1.	South Africa	1289.1
2.	Australia	1244.5
3.	Pakistan	1106.1
4.	India	1087.0
5.	England	1084.7
6.	Sri Lanka	1050.1
7.	New Zealand	951.0
8.	West Indies	870.2
10.	Bangladesh	594.6
12.	Zimbabwe	559.8
9.	Ireland	594.8
11.	Afghanistan	587.6
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 17th December, 2014 00:11:07   [#] [2 comments] 

A long month, with another to follow. So back to series summaries for a period.

2 Tests	Pakistan	v	Australia
Pre-rating	1078.2		1273.7
Form	-21.9		+61.0
Expected Margin	Australia by 98 runs
Actual Margin	Pakistan by 221 runs
	Pakistan by 356 runs
Post-rating	1109.6		1250.4
Series rating	1465.1		888.1

A series that was largely won in the first session. Pakistan went to lunch at 2/50 off 29 overs, but Azhar Ali and Younis Khan halted what had briefly looked like a Johnson-led collapse that would have gifted Australia the best use of conditions and a leg-up. The pace bowlers tired though, Pakistan took full toll, and only Warner's 133, Mitch Marsh's 87 and Steve Smith;s 97 offered the slightest resistance from then on. Younis Khan was immense, and Azhar Ali and Misbah profitted in his shadow.

The bowling was decent from Pakistan but Australia were poor, showing neither improvement with the bat nor greater clarity of selection, from the disastrous tour of India that preceded the Ashes, and indicative of a team that, even more than normal, is a home-track bully.

3 Tests	Bangladesh	v	Zimbabwe
Pre-rating	587.3		570.7
Form	-20.2		+27.2
Expected Margin	Bangladesh by 58 runs
Actual Margin	Bangladesh by 3 wickets
	Bangladesh by 162 runs
	Bangladesh by 186 runs
Post-rating	594.6		559.8
Series rating	717.2		439.8

The first test of this series will go down as a forgotten classic - forgotten already because noone much noticed when it was being played. Zimbabwe's 240 ought to have been higher when so many batsmen got starts, but Shakib tok 6/59, and Panyangara's 5/59 could not prevent a lead of 14 runs to he home side. Taijul Islam's 8/39 set a target of merely 101, made slightly harder by starting at 3/0, and eventually achieved with 3 wickets in hand.

The other tests were also close. But Zimbabwe never quite looked like winning. In the second, Shakib combined 137 with 10/124 for the match, taking the key wicket of Masakadza (158 and 61) in both innings. At tea on day 5 Zimbabwe were 5/117 and a draw looked possible. 11.1 overs later they were all out. The third was a virtual replay, right up to the dramatic collapse on day 5, losing 5/34. A three-nil result was perhaps an unfair reflection of the tightness of the two sides. On the other hand, a Bangladesh side that can take advantage of superior positions is an interesting prospect.

3 Tests	Pakistan	v	New Zealand
Pre-rating	1109.6		937.8
Form	+38.8		+16.3
Expected Margin	Pakistan by 86 runs
Actual Margin	Pakistan by 248 runs
	Match Drawn
	New Zealad by
Post-rating	1106.1		951.0
Series rating	966.4	1087.7

Pakistan started this series as they left the previous, losing only 5 wickets in one of the more comprehensive victories you'll ever see. It was somewhat unexpected then, to see such a close second test, with Pakistan 65 runs from victory and 5 wickets from defeat when stumps were drawn. Latham and Taylor scored tons, matched by Sarfraz Ahmed, while Zulfiqar Babar took 8/233 in 72 overs.

It isn't clear what difference the improvement in the second test meant for the third though. The death of Phillip Hughes in Australia, interrupted Pakistan at 3/281 after day one, and the match turned in ways that seemed largely not to matter. Hafeez was stopped at 197, as Craig took 7/94 in the morning. McCullum (202) and Williamson (192) played the sort of innings that is only possible when you don't care if you are dismissed, and only Asad Shafiq slowed New Zealand on their way to victory. In many ways it was an exhibition match, completed to fulfill commitments, and because cricket was as good a way to mark events as any.

4 Tests	Australia	v	India
Pre-rating	1250.4		1082.6
Form	-6.9		+74.7
Expected Margin	Australia by 134 runs

As with the test between Pakistan and New Zealand, the team more mentally attuned will have a significant advantage. Don't assume that will be India though, who have posted their own tributes to Hughes, had their preparation disrupted, and are missing their captain. Australia could be focused, could be distraght and distracted; might be aggressive (though the sledging is likely to be toned down), or could go through the motions. My gut says they'll be the former, mixing bouncers with hook shots and playing hard.

India, whose recent touring record in Australia is poor, and looked hapless towards the end of the English tour, would have looked at Adelaide as their best chance of a win (after, perhaps, Sydney). If they bat well, and preferably second they will have a strong chance of a draw, and perhaps more. But it would be a shock if Australia didn't win.

Rankings at 9th December 2014
1.	South Africa	1289.1
2.	Australia	1250.4
3.	Pakistan	1106.1
4.	England	1084.7
5.	India	1082.6
6.	Sri Lanka	1050.1
7.	New Zealand	951.0
8.	West Indies	870.2
11.	Bangladesh	594.6
12.	Zimbabwe	559.8
9.	Ireland	594.8
10.	Afghanistan	587.6
13.	Scotland	430.3
14.	Namibia	383.4
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	257.3
17.	Netherlands	182.4
18.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 9th December, 2014 00:24:58   [#] [0 comments] 

A silent moment to mark the sad passing of Phillip Hughes and Hillel Awaskar, but cricket moves on. Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to review Americas division 2 (3:58) which saw Suriname assert themselves as the best team in South America. Papua New Guinea's win in the EAP Trophy is then discussed, along with Fiji's victories to take them back to the WCL. (10:40). Afghanistan dominated the ACC U/19 tournament in Kuwait, but the UAE has improved (19:20). And there have been various matches involving the leading associates, with some good and bad results (21:30). There is news from the ICC: the 10-team world cup has been confirmed, the ICC awards were announced, and there is some disturbing news about the umpiring panel (39:32). And there is news from Afghanistan, and Kenya as we lead up to WCL2 (48:03).

Direct Download Running Time 54min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - men's women's, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 5th December, 2014 10:34:40   [#] [0 comments]