## Possible methods for deciding test match draws Russell Degnan

The proposals for a rebirth of a test championship raises the interesting question of what to do when a knockout test match is drawn. The broader context allows some default options, such as the higher ranked, or higher placed team progressing, or to calculate an aggregate margin in a drawn series. But depending on the format, there will often be occasions when teams need to be separated within a single match. Six options are discussed below, and their merits.

For the purposes of an example, Australias most recent draws (against New Zealand and West Indies) will be cited. Assume in both cases that it was a single match series.

By a timeless test

The traditional option, in many ways, as it was used to decide series in Australia even after the war, when the final test was decisive.

Pros: Result is not contrived, but within the match.
Cons: Discourages assertive batting; can cause significant scheduling problems if a test is drawn out, particularly in a tight tournament.

v NZ: Australia would have batted on in both innings, without the loss of wickets that proceeded the declaration. New Zealand would need at least 217 runs with 8 wickets in hand.
v WI: Another 28 wickets needed to be taken. Practically another test match.

By T20 / super over or equivalent

Five days of cricket completed in a different format, just to get one.

Pros: Is quick, entertaining, and decisive.
Cons: Ignores the result of the actual test; is also stymied by rain (particularly on day 5); would encourage teams that were beind (or strong at T20) to play for a draw.

By first innings totals

In the event of a draw the highest first innings would win. A format commonly used in club cricket, and to get results in first class competitions.

Pros: Makes for exciting cricket in the first innings, as a team must stay in front.
Cons: Would discourage declarations and attacking cricket; It is possible to rain out a first innings too.

NZ 624 def AUS 9/559
AUS require 154 runs. Match result undetermined.

By average (runs/wickets) for the series

In the event that the final match of a series was a decider, the average per wicket for the whole series could be used in the event of a draw. Otherwise this is equivalent to the count back method, below.

Pros: Gives teams a clear idea of what they need to do.
Cons: Favours the side batting last as theyll only use their best batsmen; in a series works against the team that won the decisive moments (ala England in 09 and 15); discourages going for a result over building a big total; encourages declaring on tail-enders.

NZ 60.67 def AUS 59.00
AUS 88.00 def WI 33.00

By limiting the total overs (1st and 2nd innings combined)

In this format a team must declare their second innings (the third innings) when they have used half the match overs (usually 225). The team with the highest total would win, regardless of wickets. In the event of rain or slow over rates the allotted overs would need to be adjusted - in the event of late rain this would require a D/L style decision (or count back, as below). A single reserve day would significantly reduce the threat of confusing results.

Pros: Provides a finishing chase on the final day; ensures both teams to know what they need to do.
Cons: Could become messy with lost overs; a lot of rain would end up like an ODI.

In the match: AUS 236 overs for 944 runs vs NZ 182 overs for 724 runs
In this scenario: AUS 215 overs for 849 runs, leaving NZ 33 overs to get 125 (8 wickets in hand)

In this match: WI 113 overs for 330 runs v AUS 38 overs for 176 runs
In this scenario: WI D/L adjusted to 53 overs, leaving AUS ~10 runs in 15 overs (8 wickets in hand)

By count back

In this format, the team that was ahead at the loss of that particular wicket in their own innings would be declared the winner when time ran out. This would mean at any time in the match (after the first innings) a team could tell if they were in front.

Pros: Doesnt unduly favour either side, and allows a match to fluctuate particularly as a draw approaches; discourages bowling for a declaration.
Cons: Encourages run-scoring over chasing a target; could be controversial if umpires end a match for light (ala PAK v ENG in UAE)

NZ 668/12 def AUS 601/12
Australias next wicket was at 829, meaning Australia would win if theyd taken a wicket in the last hour.
AUS 176/2 def WI 115/3
West Indies 7th wicket was at 246 meaning West Indies would need to take 5 wickets for less than 73 runs in the last hour.

Cricket - Manifesto 6th February, 2016 16:40:48   [#] [0 comments]

## WCL, I-Cup and the U19 WC; Associate and Affiliate Cricket Podcast Russell Degnan

The Intercontinental Cup and World Cricket League championship returned albeit without much play in Hong Kong, and in a series of one-sided encounters between the Netherlands and UAE. Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to discuss the recent round of matches, and the ongoing Ireland-PNG series (0:20). The U-19 world cup is half run and Nepal and Namibia produced some significant upsets (9:00). And Afghanistan is playing Zimbabwe again (18:00). There were aso matches by the ICC Americas side in the West Indies (19:50) and mens and womens East-Asia-Pacific squads in country Australia (21:40). The ICC conference was ongoing when we record, but we set the scene for the numerous discussions being held (24:00). There is news from Hong Kong with the suspension of Irfan Ahmed and ascension of Ryan Campbell (29:30), Ireland women (38:30) and not enough regarding Suriname as WCL5 draws closer (42:00). Finally, we preview the Asia Cup (35:00).

Direct Download Running Time 46min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - mens womens, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 5th February, 2016 23:46:40   [#] [0 comments]

## 2015 Review; Associate and Affiliate Cricket Podcast Russell Degnan

As the new year begins, Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to discuss the best players (7:00), the teams that impressed or didnt (14:00), highlights (25:00), lowlights (29:30) and the state of the game in 2016 (30:10). There is also a review of Afghanistans ongoing series against Zimbabwe (0:20); news from Afghanistan (46:10) and the WBBL (48:50), and a review of the January I-Cup and WCLC series between UAE and Netherlands, and Hong Kong and Scotland (51:00). Finally, a big shout out to all our interviewees and listeners over the last year.

Direct Download Running Time 53min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - mens womens, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 4th January, 2016 21:46:12   [#] [0 comments]

## Losing before you begin; Ratings 26th December Russell Degnan

4th TestIndiavSouth Africa
Pre-rating1145.11224.4
Form+32.9-40.5
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 10 runs
Actual MarginIndia by 337 runs
Post-rating1160.91204.7
Series rating1329.01044.5

To the extent that the position of teams on my personal rankings is an interesting subplot, the finale to the South African innings threw one up when they finished a mere 8 runs short of maintaining their number one ranking. Had they known and cared, the 5/7 they lost in the final 4 overs of the match might have mattered. As it was, the now familiar script, of a terrible collapse, offset by some decent pace bowling (this time from Abbott) and comparatively ineffective part-time and full-time spin.

The comparison is, perhaps, unfair. Ashwin and Jadeja are well suited to the conditions, and took full advantage, taking 54 wickets between them at 11. The extent of their dominance is best seen in the batting averages where only de Villiers (36.85) averaged over 20 for South Africa. By contrast, Rahane, perhaps one of my favourite young cricketers, with his engaged attitude and intelligent play, showed his class as well, scoring the only two centuries of the series in the final test.

South Africas extraordinary 143 over attempt to salvage a draw was admirable, but ultimately they fell well short, owing to their failures earlier in the match; and their total, of only 143, meant that even that level of focus, shorn of shots, would not have changed the series. They lead into their next series against England with many questions over their batting, and the feeling that an era has passed.

2 TestsNew ZealandvSri Lanka
Pre-rating1029.2980.8
Form+33.4-16.8
Expected MarginNew Zealand by 74 runs
Actual MarginNew Zealand by 122 runs
New Zealand by 5 wickets
Post-rating1048.5969.4
Series rating1123.9888.3

New Zealand showed two sides to their game in this series. In the first, on the back of Guptills 156 and Williamsons 88, they accelerated the first innings and declaring aggressively in the second. Batting 50 overs fewer than Sri Lanka in the match mattered when there were fewer than 50 overs left in the fifth day at the moment of victory, and other sides would have missed the opportunity. In the second, the efforts of Chameera (5/47) left them chasing the game from a 55 run deficit. But the tail ground out 59 extra runs from 5/168 and 47 crucial runs from 5/142 in the chase - by contrast, Sri Lanka lost 5/33 in their first innings and 5/23 in their second. Sri Lanka really ought to have put more pressure on than they did, but they struggle with that, away from home, and Williamsons ton was sufficient to turn a low scoring match.

New Zealand continue to impress, and a weak series by England in South Africa could see them enter the top-5 for the first time since 2003. Sri Lanka continue their slow decline, no doubt hastened by the retirement of Sangakarra; their lowest ranking since 1999. They have a long way to fall to the West Indies and the teams below, and there was some promise in this performance. But their inability to score more than 300, and the relative innocuity of their pace attack limits their options for winning matches. Herath aside, and then only at home, Sri Lanka dont have anyone wholl take a game away in a couple of sessions. And that makes for a rocky path to victory.

1st TestAustraliavWest Indies
Pre-rating1204.8859.0
Form-15.8-12.8
Expected MarginAustralia by 223 runs
Actual MarginAustralia by an innings and 212 runs
Post-rating1215.7841.8

Jason Holder is a very admirable cricketer. A potentially brilliant one, who ought to be given every opportunity to do so, but is instead saddled as the captain of a team that barely fits the description. Like Darren Sammy before him, he is their best performing bowler, but not a very dangerous one, and a useful batsman, but not capable of playing as a batsman alone (even for this team). Sammy, at least by dint of experience, managed to wrangle the best out of some of his players. Holder appears to be fighting a losing battle to keep his team from arching their necks towards the BBL and joining their countrymen. On the basis of this test, theyd be better off doing so, and abandoning the series to a team that did care.

Holder bowled neat lines, but Voges and Marsh were untroubled in their epic partnership of 449, and he had practically no support. Similarly, Bravo, and Brathwaite can both bat, and proved it, but got 55 runs from the rest of the top-6 combined, over two innings. Australia played well, and managed in the process, to put aside the expectations of an easy victory, and make it happen. Whether Boxing Day can provide some impetus for a better West Indies performance, and even a contest remains to be seen. The rated performance of the West Indies in Hobart would put them 12th on the rankings, and that might be generous. Thats a big hole to climb out of, and a lot to burden a young player with, if Holder is to motivate them to at least look like they are trying.

4 TestsSouth AfricavEngland
Pre-rating1204.71088.9
Form-49.7-14.1
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 108 runs

It will be a sweet homecoming for South Africa, having come away from India having failed to come to terms with the spinning wickets that nullified their pace advantage. Yet, England, even potentially without Anderson, have their own pace bowlers who can offer some danger, and the turmoil in the South African batting order remains. The feeling is that this is a series between two flawed, and possibly limited sides, reasonably well matched, with the English rising, and the South Africans falling. The ratings though, project that into the future, and the home advantage, such as it is, ought to be enough for South Africa to win, perhaps comfortably, against a side that remains young, but for a few stalwarts. Steyns return will make a huge difference, and expect South Africa to win, but not always have it their own way.

Rankings at 26th December 2015
1.Australia1215.7
2.South Africa1204.7
3.India1160.9
4.Pakistan1142.9
5.England1088.9
6.New Zealand1048.5
7.Sri Lanka969.4
8.West Indies841.8
12.Zimbabwe559.8

9.Ireland640.3
11.Afghanistan591.5
13.Scotland408.0
14.Namibia337.5
15.Kenya276.4
16.U.A.E.235.9
17.Papua New Guinea217.6
18.Hong Kong183.6
19.Netherlands174.8

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they dont play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 25th December, 2015 23:32:19   [#] [0 comments]

## Womens WT20 Qualifiers; Associate and Affiliate Cricket Podcast Russell Degnan

Thailand played host to the womens world T20 qualifiers, with Ireland winning the final over Bangladesh and qualifying for the main event. (2:10) Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to discuss that tournament, the Afghanistan-PNG I-Cup match (8:13), the WCL matches between Hong Kong and UAE (12:27), and PNG and Nepal (14:23), plus the other (fairly pointless T20 matches in the UAE (17:26), and the Gulf T20 Cup (19:42). We begin the podcast with some thoughts on Raymond van Schoor, who passed away unexpectedly after suffering a stroke on the field. And there is news from Nepal, with their long-time coach, Dassanayake, has moved on (20:54), from Hong Kong whove had their Mission Road ground approved (23:21), the UAEs plans to professionalise cricket (27:04), and from the ICC (and others) wandering into US cricket (28:43).

Direct Download Running Time 38min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - mens womens, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 10th December, 2015 18:33:04   [#] [0 comments]

## Interesting pitches, interesting matches; Ratings 1st December Russell Degnan

2nd/3rd TestAustraliavNew Zealand
Pre-rating1216.61003.9
Form-9.1+32.3
Expected MarginAustralia by 156 runs
Actual MarginMatch drawn
Australia by 3 wickets
Post-rating1204.81029.2
Series rating1203.71019.6

Given there was some talk before the series that New Zealands pace attack and Australias fragile batting would combine into a potential series loss for the home side, the eventual victory ought to be well regarded. But the shakiness in Adelaide, and the flatness of the pitch in Perth shows that Australia are no closer to resolving their vulnerability away from home. Many recent batsmen (Warner, Clarke, Hussey) sit high in the list of highest average in Australia, but they also top the list of largest difference in home and away performance.

Perth exemplified why this is true, with a pitch so lifeless it destroyed Johnson, probably Starc, and countless balls. As good as Warner, Williamson and Taylor were, and despite the brief window of opportunity for New Zealand, shut by Smith and Voges, this was a dull match.

Johnson though, deserves a brief valediction. At his fastest, and most accurate, a frightening bowler who could destroy a side, not just with good balls, but with anything. Balls batsmen picked up late, and failed to control. With perhaps no better example than the spell against South Africa in Perth in 2008. Yet, as often as not he was a workhorse, bowling more overs than anyone for several years after that promising beginning, and drifting quickly into mediocrity, punctuated by unexpected success. With the right supporting cast, he won many matches for Australia. With a cast of players like himself, Johnson was a liability if things went wrong. Hopefully with Starc, similar in so many ways, they selectors will learn the lessons and keep him fresh and attacking.

After Brisbane and Perth, a typically dead Adelaide track might have drained all life out of the summer, but whether as a fortunate side-effect of the need to pink ball, the lights, or something else, we got a pitch offering swing, seam and a challenge to batsman growing fat off broken bowlers. The ball held up, the night scenery looked brilliant, and the match delivered a tense outcome, as Australia slid home.

New Zealand will point to Lyons DRS escape as a turning point, and they might have won without it, but they ought to have pressed home the advantage anyhow. Letting the tail get away after the reprieve (particularly Starc) and scoring just 410 runs despite 16 players making double figures were the primary causes of their defeat. In the end, both teams played roughly to their ratings, with New Zealand continuing a steady rise, and a close series likely when they return home.

2nd/3rd TestIndiavSouth Africa
Pre-rating1123.11251.3
Form+33.7-39.9
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 14 runs
Actual MarginMatch drawn
India by 124 runs
Post-rating1145.11224.4

There isnt much to say about the second test, exept to note that it was South Africas best batting performance of the three innings, despite being all out for 214, and that only from some magic from AB de Villiers. Four days of rain does tend to lessen the chance of a result.

The third test provided much the same contest between spin and poor batting as the first two tests; not least because the pitches are made to order, a decision I have no problem with in the slightest. The bowler who first took advantage wasnt even the spinner, as Morkel answered the call to lead the attack, and moved it everywhere taking 3/35 and 3/19. Rabada is a good prospect but Harmer, Tahir and Duminy werent able to match Ashwin (5/32 and 7/66), a master of his home pitches.

Unfortunately, the low totals, achieved in conjunction with some terrible shots, particularly on the Indian side, have led many to conclude that the pitch was worse than it was. It turned, but many wickets were taken with those that didnt, or for attempts to score when patience was required. South Africas batting has looked spooked throughout, shorn of easy runs, and forced to work hard, it has perished. It is not the first, but more pitches like both Adelaide and Nagpur are required if batsmen are to relearn the skill of defence, as well as attack.

I-CupU.A.E.vHong Kong
Pre-rating248.5150.1
Form+12.7+4.4
Expected MarginU.A.E. by 99 runs
Actual MarginHong Kong by 276 runs
Post-rating235.9183.6

Rarely can a team have fallen as quickly from a position of strength as the U.A.E. Impressive in the world cup, albeit winless, they have barely been competitive in any match since, and were thrashed by Hong Kong here. Babar Hayat and Tanwir Afzal scored centuries in the first innings to get the score to 378, and the U.A.E. were never close thereafter, falling for 181 in the second innings, fighting back briefly - a collapse of 7/40 by Hong Kong limited the chase to 382 - but losing 5/1 in 2.4 overs to start day four, and subsiding to a huge loss. Hong Kong cricket continues to make great strides, and they will work their way up the rankings on this performance. But the U.A.E. are heading the way of Canada, and it isnt pretty.

I-CupAfghanistanvPNG
Pre-rating586.2219.4
Form+17.6+33.9
Expected MarginAfghanistan by 183 runs
Actual MarginAfghanistan by 201 runs
Post-rating591.5217.7

The surprising outcoem of this match was that Afghanistan beat their expected win, despite being 151 runs behind on the first innings. A collapse to Vanua for 144, and a century from Dai had the Papuans well set, but the Afghans can score heavily when they get going, and Shahzad and Stanikzai both made tons on their way to 540. The more important innings - at least in the long term - probably came from Hashmatullah Shahidi, who along with Shabir Noori, scored a lot of runs in their 4-day competition, and is the likely future of Afghan batting. His 112 was grinding (214 balls), but they need players like that.

That platform left a big chase, and Valas 81 aside, PNG was never close. The worrying player for them is Lega Siaka, who has scored only 106 runs in his last 11 international innings (across all formats). He is a key player, and their most talented future prospect, but they cant carry him at the top of the order averaging in single figures. Hopefully, soon, hell find and correct whatever it is that is causing his form slump.

Rankings at 1st December 2015
1.South Africa1224.4
2.Australia1204.8
3.India1145.1
4.Pakistan1142.9
5.England1088.9
6.New Zealand1029.2
7.Sri Lanka980.8
8.West Indies859.2
12.Zimbabwe559.8

9.Ireland640.3
11.Afghanistan591.5
13.Scotland408.0
14.Namibia337.5
15.Kenya276.4
16.U.A.E.235.9
17.Papua New Guinea217.6
18.Hong Kong183.6
19.Netherlands174.8

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they dont play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 3rd December, 2015 01:02:25   [#] [0 comments]

## WCL, I-Cup and the WWT20Q; Associate and Affiliate Cricket Podcast Russell Degnan

Lots of cricket, but not much diversity with seemingly the whole of the associate calendar moved to the UAE. Andrew Nixon (@andrewnixon79) joins Russell Degnan (@idlesummers) to discuss the Kenyas victory over Namibia in the WCL (0:30), Hong Kongs victory over the UAE in the I-Cup (2:45), Omans participation in the warmups (5:30) and matches between full members and associates including Hong Kong, Nepal (6:54) and the USA womens side (11:27). There was a tournament in East Asia (13:38), and a womens tournament in north west Africa (15:49). In news, we discuss the possible ACC reappearance (17:15), Jersey to host WCL5 (18:39) and the return of Boyd Rankin to Ireland (19:37). And there are previews of the Womens World T20 in Thailand (20:41), and WCL and I-Cup matches ongoing (23:56).

Direct Download Running Time 30min. Music from Martin Solveig, "Big in Japan"

The associate and affiliate cricket podcast is an attempt to expand coverage of associate tournaments by obtaining local knowledge of the relevant nations. If you have or intend to go to a tournament at associate level - mens womens, ICC, unaffiliated - then please get in touch in the comments or by email.

Cricket - Associate - Podcast 17th November, 2015 21:02:07   [#] [0 comments]

## The somewhat predictable outcome; Ratings 13th November Russell Degnan

3rd TestPakistanvEngland
Post-rating1128.51095.2
Form+29.3-6.5
Expected MarginPakistan by 17 runs
Actual MarginPakistan by 127 runs
Post-rating1142.91088.9
Series rating1210.71007.5

It is weird to think that a team with a 72 run first innings lead looked a unikely winner, but such was the predicament of England, batting last, and ever uncomfortable. Pakistan may not be technically at home, but their series rating is almost exactly what it would be if they were, and they play with the confidence of a team that knows it is superior.

Part of the problem for England was that their early lead was built on the back of Anderson and Broad, taking 6/30 off 28 overs in the first innings. The lack of spin support,and the need for rest allowed Pakistan a total of 234, and they couldnt repeat in the second innings, where Hafeez (151) and Azhar Ali retook the lead without loss, and a little tail wag built a defendable total.

A lack of big totals also hampered the English - also a sign that they were never comfortable batting against Yasir Shah and Shoaib Malik who took 14 wickets in the match. Five scores over 40 and no hundreds meant they only just passed 300 when they ought to have built an insurmountable lead. Cooks 63 showed what a fine batsman he is in Asia where patience is required, but the rest of the top order made 30 between them. Youll not win many games doing that.

1st TestAustraliavNew Zealand
Pre-rating1214.31007.0
Form-18.3+52.1
Expected MarginAustralia by 154 runs
Actual MarginAustralia by 208 runs
Post-rating1216.61003.9

Aggressive declarations meant the margin in this match was somewhat short of what it might have been. New Zealand hardly looked like taking a wicket, and only Southee kept the run-scoring down to any degree. Boult, whose natural line ought to trouble the left-handers was punished when he dropped short, and didnt find enough movement to cause problems when full.

Australia is an excellent front-running team these days, and although New Zealand made them grind, and the Starc-Johnson combination continues to feel unbalanced, Lyon did enough to make it work, and Williamsons batting aside, New Zealand had too many overs to bat (almost three days, in total, excluding rain) to get the draw. McCullum might have raised the fleeting possibility of an unlikely chase, but the overs either side of the new ball ended both innings. The "home margin" on the ratings is beginning to look a little under-powered.

1st TestIndiavSouth Africa
Pre-rating1109.51267.9
Form+26.4-27.9
Expected MarginSouth Africa by 29 runs
Actual MarginIndia by 108 runs
Pre-rating1123.11251.3

Speaking of under-powered home advantages. India have often been on the wrong side of this, while South Africas away record is exemplary. But with Steyn injured in this match, and the BCCI not averse to beginning matches on a third day pitch - low, uneven, dusty, but still only needing to last into the "fifth" day - theyll be hard-pressed to come back in this series.

I rather like spinning pitches, and the sight of batsmen falling to looping, turning spin (even if in the first innings it was from Dean Elgar) is great entertainment. The batsmen showing their skills were a little light-on, only Vijay and Pujara performing for India, and Amla and de Villiers for South Africa. After both of them fell early in the chase, South Africa never looked a chance of making the target. An impression magnified by their confusion on when to play or leave, with several straight balls clattering into their stumps. Such are the tests of interesting wickets, and cricket is better for it, even if the broadcasters might wonder what happened to the schedule.

Rankings at 13th November 2015
1.South Africa1251.3
2.Australia1216.6
3.Pakistan1142.9
4.India1123.1
5.England1088.9
6.New Zealand1003.9
7.Sri Lanka980.8
8.West Indies859.2
12.Zimbabwe559.8

9.Ireland640.3
11.Afghanistan586.2
13.Scotland408.0
14.Namibia337.5
15.Kenya276.4
16.U.A.E.248.5
17.Papua New Guinea219.4
18.Netherlands174.8
19.Hong Kong150.1