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T20 Ratings - World Cup Edition (match day 6)
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| Rankings at 14th June 2009 | form | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | South Africa | 1306.64 | +91.15 |
| 3. | Pakistan | 1271.67 | +44.75 |
| 4. | India | 1262.85 | -64.27 |
| 5. | Sri Lanka | 1254.14 | -19.15 |
| 6. | West Indies | 1206.92 | +16.91 |
| 7. | New Zealand | 1198.87 | +26.82 |
| 8. | England | 1190.50 | -22.51 |
| 11. | Ireland | 763.67 | +43.03 |
Predictions for match day 6
Ireland v Pakistan 51 runs
England v West Indies 8 runs
New Zealand v Sri Lanka 6 runs
India v South Africa 4 runs
As noted the day before yesterday, I took a moment to compare predictions, based on both the current rating, and current rating with form. The short answer: neither are much help. The average error in both was almost exactly 28 runs; by comparison, the average error if a tie had been predicted for every match: 24.6 runs. Looking at the scatter-plot of results, it is possible that it will converge on a predicted margin half what it currently is, with a standard deviation of 20 runs. In other words, a massive 400 point difference in rating points is needed before the win percentage approaches 65%.
On a different note, Sri Lanka's travails against Ireland has meant their game against New Zealand is now a must-win to go through, whereas the South Africa v India game is marked as "dead", in case India annihilates South Africa and still receives little gain in the ratings.
Cricket - Ratings - T20 15th June, 2009 12:02:33 [#]
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