Recently completed matches

2nd Test	England	v	Bangladesh
Pre-rating	1125.95		640.26
Form	+0.57		+21.86
Expected Margin	England by 301 runs
Actual Margin	England by 8 wickets
Post-rating	1127.08		638.24

On several levels, Old Trafford was a miserable failure for Bangladesh, they lost 10 wickets in just over a session twice. Once is okay, as several teams showed last year: England (10/91 in 29.5 overs - 4th test), Australia (10/87 in 29.5 overs - 5th test), but if you do it twice, like say, the West Indies (10/106 in 23.4 overs - 1st Test and 123 in 31.5 overs - 2nd Test) then you don't deserve to play test cricket. Not that the collapse mattered on that front. It is a peculiarly English thing to treat teams with condescension until they've beaten them at home - after which they must be good. But trawl through those dates, and they seem instantly familiar: Australia 1882, South Africa 1935, West Indies 1950, Pakistan 1954, India 1971, New Zealand 1983, Sri Lanka 1998. When Bangladesh next tour, if they ever next tour, then they can add their names to that list.

Other failures were more important: having found their way into a favourable position, they played really badly, when they need to learn to hang in and fight; they just missed their expected margin again, which indicates that their improvement is stalling, and their rating is about right; and by rushing off to the Asia Cup, they've passed up a valuable opportunity to tour the counties (and associates) to learn something about batting and bowling in difficult conditions.

Nevertheless, it wasn't all bad, and their overall performance was similar to how New Zealand and the West Indies performed in the previous three May tours:

West Indies  2007 P:4 W:0 D:1 L:3 Bat:28.60 Bowl:49.07 Ratio:0.582

New Zealand  2008 P:3 W:0 D:1 L:2 Bat:25.85 Bowl:34.67 Ratio:0.746

West Indies  2009 P:2 W:0 D:0 L:2 Bat:22.35 Bowl:61.12 Ratio:0.366

Bangladesh   2010 P:2 W:0 D:0 L:2 Bat:25.07 Bowl:49.40 Ratio:0.507

For England, this was a learning opportunity for certain players. Bresnan, though injured, seems to have been written off for his bowling at Lord's. Morgan clearly needs work and Prior was criticised while Finn and Shahzad seem to have great potential. How much you can learn from so few performances against such an ordinary side.

Forthcoming matches

I-Cup Match	Netherlands	v	Scotland
Pre-rating	219.46		464.97
Form	-30.22		+46.17
Expected Margin	Scotland by 73 runs

The inter-continental cup restarts with a vital game for both sides. The Dutch must win to have any chance of making the final, while Scotland must keep winning to stay ahead of Zimbabwe, and/or over-take Afghanistan. Without the county players, tied up in county games, Scotland probably have a slight edge, though not near as large as the ratings suggest. Plus, being the Netherlands, it will probably rain anyway.

3 Tests	West Indies	v	South Africa
Pre-rating	927.04		1187.58
Form	-2.54		-3.50
Expected Margin	South Africa by 80 runs

A big test for the West Indies, who are rated to win one game, but have been erratic in the past year, with some good performances in Australia making up for a little of the rubbish they played in England. South Africa have recently lacked the edge that took them above Australia 18 months ago, and seem overly dependent on Steyn for inspiration. If the pitches are anything like the roads served up to England then the most interesting question might be whether Amla can break the record for most runs in a calendar year. A series being anticipated more in trepidation than anticipation, but worth watching regardless.

Rankings at 9th June 2010
1.	Australia	1220.38
2.	India	1209.48
3.	South Africa	1187.58
4.	England	1125.95
5.	Sri Lanka	1103.96
6.	Pakistan	1073.88
7.	West Indies	927.04
8.	New Zealand	917.91
9.	Bangladesh	638.24
10.	Zimbabwe	556.79
11.	Ireland	547.06
12.	Scotland	464.97
13.	Namibia	378.09
14.	Afghanistan	362.06
15.	Kenya	351.46
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	280.48
18.	Netherlands	219.46
19.	Nepal	196.51
20.	Canada	177.28
21.	U.A.E.	161.47
22.	Hong Kong	148.65
23.	Bermuda	138.61
24.	Cayman Is	134.24
25.	Malaysia	123.90

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 10th June, 2010 19:42:00   [#] 

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