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4th Test	Australia	v	England
Pre-rating	1201.24		1181.54
Form	-8.30		+18.56
Expected Margin	Australia by 60 runs
Actual Margin	England by an innings and 157 runs
Post-rating	1175.63		1208.47

A team is in real trouble when people start scrambling for the record books to see just how badly they are being beaten. Australia are hard to assess in that sense, having won in Perth and played respectably in India, there are reasonable grounds for supposing they aren't that bad. But the tendency to collapse, a feature of their cricket for the past three years means they are consistently trying to fight their way back into games, instead of having poor bowling performances meander to a draw.

And yet, yet, oddly enough, had Australia had a little more backbone in Adelaide, the series would still be tied at 1-all. Moreover, they are still a reasonable, but unlikely, chance of tying this series at 2-all. Both a sign of how difficult it is to win in Australian conditions, and that some talent remains.

We ought, therefore, to praise England for making Australia look so bad. Their tight bowling lines, mostly thoughtful field-placings, and intelligent batting (particularly on the first evening) has meant they are not only consistently putting Australia under pressure, they are inducing collapses, and then sticking the boot in with the bat. They go into this test with an opportunity to reach the top ranking spot for the first time since 1972. For Australia, another crushing loss will send them plummeting to their worst ranking since the early 1990s, with a feeling that there remains more to come.

A final word on Ricky Ponting. For some time now I've wanted him to drop down the order or removed from the lineup, as his record has been below that required for a number three. After a test match so poor it threatens to besmirch both his playing and captaincy record, most commentators have joined the chorus of disapproval. It would be sad, therefore, if injury meant Melbourne was Ponting's last foray onto the test arena. Sad, but necessary however, as the side is going backwards rapidly with him at the helm.

2nd Test	South Africa	v	India
Pre-rating	1201.95		1204.73
Form	+25.85		-10.2
Expected Margin	South Africa by 49 runs
Actual Margin	India by 87 runs
Post-rating	1194.16		1211.04

India would have faced up on the Durban pitch with some trepidation given their mauling a week earlier. One of their great strengths as a team is that their batting strength largely protects them from losses. On a pitch that talks that strength is negated, and it becomes a test of mettle both for the batsmen (who must choose their shots judiciously) and the bowlers (who must bowl accurately to take full advantage). They owed the win in this test, as they have in several others this year, to Zaheer Khan and VVS Laxman, who assessed and played the conditions better than any player other than Steyn (a match-winner if not for his supporting batsmen).

For South Africa, who have again failed to assert themselves on a home series, there remains the suspicion that they are carrying several players, and therefore too dependent on their stars performing, to maintain form. The series, and the race to be the number one is interestingly poised, although India now seem likely to retain that spot through the World Cup, before facing off against England in a head-to-head for same come June.

Rankings at 2nd January 2011
1.	India	1211.04
2.	England	1208.47
3.	South Africa	1194.16
4.	Australia	1175.63
5.	Sri Lanka	1088.00
6.	West Indies	931.04
7.	New Zealand	913.44
8.	Bangladesh	629.55
9.	Zimbabwe	556.79
10.	Ireland	556.46
11.	Afghanistan	484.71
12.	Scotland	448.84
13.	Namibia	400.40
14.	Kenya	338.92
15.	U.S.A.	296.99
16.	Uganda	268.44
17.	Nepal	196.51
18.	Netherlands	195.69
19.	Canada	177.51
20.	U.A.E.	176.09
21.	Hong Kong	148.65
22.	Cayman Is	134.24
23.	Malaysia	123.90
24.	Bermuda	105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 3rd January, 2011 10:22:56   [#] 

Comments

Ratings - 1st January 2011
Think that's an excellent analysis. Aus are definitely not as bad as England have made them look so think you're spot on.


Bradders  4th January, 2011 18:15:28