Recent Results

Only Test	Zimbabwe	v	New Zealand
Pre-rating	553.31		885.38
Form	-9.46		-29.09
Expected Margin	New Zealand by 116 runs
Actual Margin	New Zealand by 34 runs
Post-rating	556.62		876.93

Zimbabwe may well rue that with better catching, cooler heads and a little more luck, they could have won all three tests since their comeback. They won plenty of admirers here for their spirited chase of a target that proved just out of reach, led by their captain, Taylor (117) but well supported throughtout the match by a top-6 that looks dependable, if nothing else. Their bowling was also reasonable even without Vitori; Jarvis keeping them in it with 5 second innings wickets. But beign better than expected is still not great, and they are still a step behind a weak New Zealand side, who failed to dominant the game, even if it was one they were generally on top of. Ross Taylor and Williamson provided the runs, and Vettori the bulk of the wickets before Bracewell chimed in with five on debut. An excellent game, and a good demonstration of the type of hard-fought and exciting cricket the weaker nations can produce, if only they had a reason to play more games against each other.

Forthcoming Series

3 Tests	India	v	West Indies
Pre-rating	1111.89		921.28
Form	-62.14		-9.20
Expected Margin	India by 143 runs

A test series that ought to demonstrate that India remains a class above the teams in the middle of the test rankings. The West Indies played relatively well at home, but will be lucky to compete here, especially on the back of a disappointing tour of Bangladesh. The Indian media remains pre-occupied with pointless statistics, a further sign that cricket has lost its way, if it ever had it. After a difficult tour of England, several players need to prove that they still have something to offer, otherwise the process of rebuilding an aging lineup will have to start sooner than expected.

2 Tests	South Africa	v	Australia
Pre-rating	1180.15		1133.16
Form	+0.54		-26.34
Expected Margin	South Africa by 73 runs

Like the series above, one of cricket's oldest and strongest rivalries, now sadly devalued. Unlike the above, this devauling is caused not by a lack of on-field prowess, but by obstinate administration. In the past two decades, hardly a series between these two sides hasn't been close, and this will be no different. One-all is the likely result, though South Africa ought to win, and Australia will feel they continue to have the upper-hand. Conditions in both nations are sufficiently similar, and both play the same type of game, based around a strong pace attack, aggressive running, and athletic fielding. In all three areas, South Africa have the edge, in addition to the better spinner and the greater experience. Where Australia have the edge is the potential for one-off performances, from Hughes, Johnson, Marsh, even Ponting (whose recent form remains catastrophically bad) or their new bowlers: Cummins (if playing) and Lyons. On their last tour, Johnson and Hughes played in a manner not since seen; they'll need those performances again if they are to repeat.

Rankings at 6th November 2011
1.	England	1333.15
2.	South Africa	1180.15
3.	Australia	1133.16
4.	India	1111.89
5.	Pakistan	1051.68
6.	Sri Lanka	1036.39
7.	West Indies	921.28
8.	New Zealand	876.93
9.	Bangladesh	622.73
10.	Zimbabwe	556.62
11.	Ireland	559.06
12.	Afghanistan	514.53
13.	Scotland	437.45
14.	Namibia	407.53
15.	Kenya	338.92
16.	U.S.A.	296.99
17.	Uganda	268.44
18.	U.A.E.	219.51
19.	Netherlands	202.55
20.	Nepal	196.51
21.	Canada	154.58
22.	Hong Kong	148.65
23.	Cayman Is	134.24
24.	Malaysia	123.90
25.	Bermuda	105.40

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don't play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 6th November, 2011 15:30:43   [#] 

Comments

Ratings - 6th November 2011
Hi Russ.
Just another Q on the rankings going into each match-up... what is the form no derived from? The change of rank pts in the immediate past, change totaled from the last 3 or 5 tests?

Cheers!
@TKYC  10th November, 2011 13:45:42  

Ratings - 6th November 2011
TKYC, Form and the other magic is explained here. To quote:

A team is no longer docked the entire preliminary ratings change. To allow the ratings to be more sensitive to changes in form, without making them erratic to off games (the West Indies massive loss to Pakistan in the late-80s stands out here), only half of the ratings change is added immediately. The other half, is added to a protected ratings table - often referred to as form, which it effectively measures.

If a team has a positive form, and receives points, they receive a quarter of their current form, in addition to half the rating change, and vice versa. Otherwise they receive only the ratings change. The protected rating is declined by 25% each game, plus half the preliminary rating change.

Form is therefore 3/4 of the form leading into the previous game, plus 1/2 the rating change in the previous game.


Russ  10th November, 2011 22:26:52