Respective national presses can't help but dissect the disappointments of failed campaigns, but a reality check is in order, not least to demonstrate that small groups and closely ranked teams produce uncertain results.

New Zealand needed 2 runs to qualify, 1 in each tied game.
England needed about 3 more runs from New Zealand to push their NRR above West Indies.
South Africa needed 2 runs against India, and maybe 6 against Pakistan.
India needed South Africa to score those 6 against Pakistan.

It takes considerably more runs to displace Australia or Sri Lanka, who rightly head the table, but given no team is undefeated they are merely favourites, not certainties.

Semi-final 1			Form	Games	Win. Prob.
2.	Sri Lanka	2557.1	+64.7	19.7
6.	Pakistan	2490.2	+27.3	28.9
	Sri Lanka by 11 runs				65.1%

Pakistan have been typically difficult to read in this tournament. Their T20 experience and record in global events is unparalleled, but they've merely drifted along just doing enough to beat South Africa and New Zealand and beating an Australian team that sets its sights lower relatively early on. Their opponents are at home, playing well, and full of dangerous players. Sri Lanka's batting depth and consistency ought to be enough to win this one.

Semi-final 2			Form	Games	Win. Prob.
1.	Australia	2586.2	-8.9	24.3
7.	West Indies	2461.9	-22.0	19.9
	Australia by 16 runs				66.6%

Two three men teams. Australia looked very shaky losing to Pakistan, but Mike Hussey took them home, as few others can. Previous to that noone looked like getting past Watson who stomped all over the opposition with bat and ball, with Warner along for the ride. The West Indies have never looked convincing, but if Gayle or Pollard fire with the bat, or Narine - who dominated Australia earlier in the year - does with the ball, they will win any match. Expect Australia to book another final, but don't bet on it.

Departing			Form	Games
3.	England	2549.9	-37.2	23.5
4.	India	2502.1	+6.6	18.4
5.	South Africa	2496.9	+9.4	27.6
8.	New Zealand	2432.1	+21.6	24.8

Notwithstanding what I wrote above, none of these teams were unlucky to be knocked out. England never looked settled and while they'll be pleased that Finn continues his upwards trajectory, only Morgan looked like scoring enough runs to give them a target. South Africa need to strip AB de Villiers of something, preferably the gloves, given he isn't that good at it, and a team gets limited value out of a batsman at number 6, let alone a number 7. His captaincy was by the numbers, and at times quite bizarre, notably in the loss to Pakistan. That talent won't be around forever.

India continue to look tired, but the problem is mostly the bowling, which succeeded only against an inept England, and an erratic Pakistan. Kohli is a rare talent, and Yuvraj played well, but there wasn't much else to take from the tournament. And New Zealand just aren't very good. They might count themselves unlucky to hit two super overs - and lose both; a ridiculous concept at the group stage, that merely wastes time and ruins the warmups of other teams. But they wouldn't have got out of their group with half points, and while they might easily have won both games, they never really seemed like they would.

Cricket - Ratings - T20 4th October, 2012 03:04:48   [#] 

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