Inspired by Fake Ritzy's ICC rankings based analysis of Australia's Ashes chances, I ran a monte-carlo simulation of the series using my own (25% draw probability, matching the historic English average).

Australia is a roughly 1 in 8 chance of winning, and a 1 in 8 chance of drawing. 3-1 England is the only scoreline returning a positive net return on the betting markets. Australia's most probable winning scoreline, 1-2, is very (very, very) slightly more likely than losing 5-0. Australia wins 5-0 in about 0.04% of series. I think Australia's Indian tour has caused their rating to under-estimate their chances. With a decent team selection there is grounds for no more than mild pessimism, but given Watson is locked in to open, things are very bleak. Very.

Cricket - Analysis 29th June, 2013 01:13:21   [#] 

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