Watching the world cup is a complex business. There are too many games at too many odd hours to watch everything and remain gainfully employed, but it can be hard to decide whether to stay up late to watch an obscure CONCACAF side play a European superpower, or crawl out of bed for a showdown between a pair of star strikers and their traffic cones come team-mates.

If quality is all you're after then the answer is obvious, but the most interesting games are those both teams need to win. In a previous post I defined match meaning as

the total change in probability that each team will qualify for the next round based on the result of a single game.

For a knockout match between two evenly matches teams this will be 1: 2x(0.5x0.5 + 0.5x0.5). A knockout where one team is 70% likely to win will be 0.84: 2(0.7x0.3 + 0.3x0.7). For a group stage, the calculation is more complex, so a monte-carlo method was employed:

Meaning = | P(Qual) - (P(Win)xP(Qual|Win) + P(Draw)xP(Qual|Draw) + P(Loss)xP(Qual|Loss)) |

Total meaning being calculated for all four teams in the group, for each game.

Match probabilities were calculated using the Elo Ratings. Historically, draws are normally distributed around the rating difference: ~40% for evenly matched teams, with a standard deviation of 200. The win/loss probabilities are taken from the Elo formula on the site.

The results indicate that the least interesting match will be Brazil vs Cameroon, the home side being near-certainties to qualify, and the latter unlikely to overcome Croatia and Mexico. The most: Croatia vs. Mexico, being a virtual knock-out, followed by Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Nigeria, the two middle sides in a group containing Argentina and Iran. A full list of qualifying probabilities, and predicted match meaning follows:

Group A
Brazil	Croatia	Mexico	Cameroon
98.51%	39.93%	49.40%	12.25%
Brazil	Croatia	12 June	0.150
Mexico	Cameroon	13 June	0.386
Brazil	Mexico	17 June	0.161
Croatia	Cameroon	18 June	0.381
Brazil	Cameroon	23 June	0.046
Croatia	Mexico	23 June	0.453
Group B
Spain	Netherlands	Chile	Australia
84.45%	61.43%	43.18%	10.99%
Chile	Australia	13 June	0.341
Spain	Netherlands	13 June	0.304
Netherlands	Australia	18 June	0.352
Spain	Chile	18 June	0.363
Netherlands	Chile	23 June	0.406
Spain	Australia	23 June	0.182
Group C
Colombia	Greece	Ivory Coast	Japan
71.18%	47.41%	42.65%	38.51%
Colombia	Greece	14 June	0.375
Ivory Coast	Japan	14 June	0.431
Colombia	Ivory Coast	19 June	0.388
Greece	Japan	19 June	0.423
Colombia	Japan	24 June	0.386
Greece	Ivory Coast	24 June	0.402
Group D
Uruguay	Costa Rica	England	Italy
59.95%	19.75%	64.84%	55.20%
Uruguay	Costa Rica	14 June	0.383
England	Italy	14 June	0.364
Uruguay	England	19 June	0.333
Costa Rica	Italy	20 June	0.421
Uruguay	Italy	24 June	0.380
Costa Rica	England	24 June	0.402
Group E
Switzerland	Ecuador	France	Honduras
57.74%	55.20%	67.30%	19.56%
Switzerland	Ecuador	15 June	0.375
France	Honduras	15 June	0.370
Switzerland	France	20 June	0.367
Ecuador	Honduras	20 June	0.402
Switzerland	Honduras	25 June	0.384
Ecuador	France	25 June	0.390
Group F
Argentina	Bosnia and Herzegovina	Iran	Nigeria
89.85%	43.13%	31.08%	36.15%
Argentina	Bosnia and Herzegovina	15 June	0.330
Iran	Nigeria	16 June	0.396
Argentina	Iran	21 June	0.286
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Nigeria	21 June	0.440
Argentina	Nigeria	25 June	0.321
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Iran	25 June	0.407
Group G
Germany	Portugal	Ghana	United States
85.68%	60.75%	14.19%	39.28%
Germany	Portugal	16 June	0.281
Ghana	United States	16 June	0.333
Germany	Ghana	21 June	0.197
Portugal	United States	22 June	0.378
Germany	United States	26 June	0.358
Portugal	Ghana	26 June	0.395
Group H
Belgium	Algeria	Russia	South Korea
72.21%	21.06%	72.46%	34.06%
Belgium	Algeria	17 June	0.369
Russia	South Korea	17 June	0.390
Belgium	Russia	22 June	0.268
Algeria	South Korea	22 June	0.330
Belgium	South Korea	26 June	0.418
Algeria	Russia	26 June	0.377

Football 12th June, 2014 22:48:18   [#] 

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