1st Test	England	v	Australia
Pre-rating	1082.1		1236.2
Form	-13.2		+9.4
Expected Margin	Australia by 27 runs
Actual Margin	England by 169 runs
Post-rating	1093.6		1221.3

Australia have three problems out of this game. The first is that their batting is plainly struggling in English conditions. Moving on Watson and Haddin, with their limited footwork and hard hands will be useful. Whether Marsh and Nevill are sufficiently skilled to make a difference remains to be seen. It is hard to believe any player would make fewer runs than Haddin has of late, but Marsh is as useful for his extra overs as his batting abilities, and they are mostly replacing one oft-injured bits-and-pieces all-rounder with another.

The second is that England`s deep batting lineup means they can put on reasonable scores once Starc and Johnson get tired, or if the new ball is successfully negotiated. A slow pitch didn`t help, but England haven`t been hurt by Lyon. And in their attack, Moeen Ali continues to convince batsmen to get themselves out attacking him, even as he gives them plenty of run-scoring opportunities without creating them.

Finally, Australia`s inability to control the run-rate with three attacking pacemen means England need only wait. It could easily turn around, if they breach the English top order they could run all the way down and make a game of it. But the loss of Harris who kept things tight, in preference for Starc who bowled well, but doesn`t, is proving more problematic than they`d have hoped.

1st Test	Bangladesh	v	South Africa
Pre-rating	597.5		1288.3
Form	+4.4		-12.2
Expected Margin	South Africa by 295 runs

Bangladesh look a proper cricket team in the one-dayers, but they have still struggled to produce decent test match performances. In recent matches at home the pitch has been so dead that a draw is their best possible result. It would be a surprise if that changed here.

Rankings at 16th July 2015
1.	South Africa	1288.3
2.	Australia	1221.3
3.	Pakistan	1115.2
4.	England	1093.6
5.	India	1089.7
6.	Sri Lanka	1011.2
7.	New Zealand	1000.5
8.	West Indies	867.0
10.	Bangladesh	597.5
12.	Zimbabwe	559.8
9.	Ireland	611.1
11.	Afghanistan	586.2
13.	Scotland	418.9
14.	Namibia	369.1
15.	Kenya	276.4
16.	U.A.E.	248.5
17.	Papua New Guinea	219.4
18.	Netherlands	164.7
19.	Hong Kong	150.1
20.	Canada	147.9

Shaded teams have played fewer than 2 games per season. Non-test team ratings are not comparable to test ratings as they don`t play each other.

Cricket - Ratings - Test 16th July, 2015 18:46:31   [#] 

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